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Agnonese vs Castelfidardo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Braconi L.
63' Event
Cusimano S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Castelfidardo in this Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castelfidardo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Agnonese
30%
Draws
23%
Castelfidardo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Agnonese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Castelfidardo lately — more wins on the board than Agnonese.
  • Agnonese are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Agnonese Clean Sheet 20%
Castelfidardo Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Agnonese Castelfidardo
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 3 8
Draws 6 5
Losses 21 19
Goals Scored 0.8 1.09
Goals Conceded 2.33 1.78
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 16, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Agnonese
4:0
Feb 7, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Agnonese vs Castelfidardo
0:2
Jan 20, 2019 Serie D - Group F
Agnonese vs Castelfidardo
0:0
Sep 30, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Agnonese
2:2
Jan 21, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Agnonese vs Castelfidardo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Agnonese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Castelfidardo Compare

Top Goalscorer Braconi L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Agnonese 49 / 100
Castelfidardo 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Agnonese Castelfidardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Agnonese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Castelfidardo conceded in 78% of 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Castelfidardo's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Agnonese found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Castelfidardo
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Agnonese

(Home)
19 Jun
Agnonese
2 : 2
Montegiorgio
16 Jun
Castelfidardo
4 : 0
Agnonese
13 Jun
Agnonese
2 : 4
Aprilia
06 Jun
Agnonese
0 : 2
Roma City
30 May
Agnonese
1 : 0
Porto Sant'Elpidio
Page 1 of 6

Castelfidardo

(Away)
03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2
AS Sora
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1
Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3
Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0
Castelfidardo
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2
Maceratese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Campobasso 34 21 9 4 63:29 72
2 Notaresco Calcio 34 18 10 6 59:34 64
3 Pineto 34 15 11 8 45:33 56
4 Cynthialbalonga 34 14 14 6 51:35 56
5 Matese 34 15 11 8 46:38 56
6 Castelfidardo 34 14 13 7 46:33 55
7 Recanatese 34 13 11 10 62:45 50
8 Castelnuovo Vomano 34 14 8 12 53:53 50
9 Vastese 34 12 13 9 45:37 48
10 Montegiorgio 34 13 7 14 42:42 46
11 FC Rieti 34 12 8 14 38:42 44
12 Aprilia 34 11 11 12 43:49 44
13 Roma City 34 8 16 10 40:41 40
14 US Tolentino 34 9 13 12 52:53 40
15 Vastogirardi 34 10 10 14 46:51 40
16 Giulianova 34 7 10 17 33:50 31
17 Porto Sant'Elpidio 34 4 5 25 22:63 17
18 Agnonese 34 3 6 25 25:83 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 (Play Offs)