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Agua Santa vs Gremio Prudente - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Everton Kanela
15' Event
de Melo Silva J. C.
18' Event
Belli M. C.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A2 game between Agua Santa and Gremio Prudente finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Agua Santa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Agua Santa
30%
Draws
37%
Gremio Prudente
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gremio Prudente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Gremio Prudente haven't matched Agua Santa's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Agua Santa Clean Sheet 20%
Gremio Prudente Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Agua Santa Gremio Prudente
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 15 9
Draws 6 13
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.34 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2026 Paulista A2
Agua Santa vs Gremio Prudente
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Agua Santa Compare

Top Goalscorer dos Santos A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Belli M. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Gremio Prudente Compare

Top Goalscorer Everton Kanela
1 Goals
Assists Leader de Melo Silva J. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Agua Santa 32 / 100
Gremio Prudente 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Agua Santa Gremio Prudente

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 7.00 goals per match.

Agua Santa found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (32 games).

Recent resilience: Agua Santa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Gremio Prudente conceded in 59% of 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Agua Santa VS Gremio Prudente
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Agua Santa

(Home)
27 Jun
Agua Santa
1 : 2
Velo Clube
20 Jun
Velo Clube
0 : 0
Agua Santa
06 Jun
America RJ
1 : 0
Agua Santa
30 May
Agua Santa
4 : 1
Madureira
23 May
Agua Santa
2 : 0
Pouso Alegre
Page 1 of 7

Gremio Prudente

(Away)
03 Oct
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1
Gremio Prudente
26 Sept
Gremio Prudente
0 : 0
Uniao Sao Joao
20 Sept
Linense
1 : 2
Gremio Prudente
15 Sept
Gremio Prudente
2 : 2
Linense
07 Sept
Paulista
2 : 3
Gremio Prudente
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Agua Santa 15 10 1 4 24:14 31
2 Ferroviaria 15 8 4 3 22:12 28
3 Ituano 15 8 4 3 22:14 28
4 Sao Jose EC 15 8 3 4 21:13 27
5 Sertaozinho 15 7 4 4 19:19 25
6 Votuporanguense 15 7 3 5 16:17 24
7 Juventus-SP 15 6 5 4 22:20 23
8 Piracicaba 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
9 Osasco Sporting 15 5 7 3 22:18 22
10 Santo Andre 15 5 3 7 16:22 18
11 Taubate 15 3 8 4 22:23 17
12 Internacional de Limeira 15 4 4 7 15:18 16
13 Linense 15 2 7 6 12:18 13
14 Monte Azul 15 2 6 7 17:22 12
15 Gremio Prudente 15 1 9 5 12:16 12
16 Sao Bento 15 1 2 12 8:25 5
Promotion - Paulista A2 (Second stage)
Relegation - Paulista A3 (Main)