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Agua Santa vs Gremio Prudente

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Agua Santa play Gremio Prudente in the Paulista A2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Agua Santa averaged 1.34 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. Gremio Prudente averaged 1.09 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. In past meetings, Agua Santa won 1, Gremio Prudente won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 25, 2026 ended 4:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Agua Santa and 1.38 for Gremio Prudente. This points to a Agua Santa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Agua Santa
35%
Draws
27%
Gremio Prudente
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Agua Santa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Agua Santa picked up more points recently compared to Gremio Prudente.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Agua Santa Clean Sheet 17%
Gremio Prudente Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Agua Santa Gremio Prudente
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 15 9
Draws 6 17
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.34 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.06 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2026 Paulista A2
Agua Santa vs Gremio Prudente
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Agua Santa Compare

Top Goalscorer dos Santos A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Belli M. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Gremio Prudente Compare

Top Goalscorer Everton Kanela
1 Goals
Assists Leader de Melo Silva J. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Agua Santa 38 / 100
Gremio Prudente 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Agua Santa Gremio Prudente

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Agua Santa or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Agua Santa attacking → ← attacking Gremio Prudente

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Agua Santa scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

Gremio Prudente let in goals in 61% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 7.00 goals.

Agua Santa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Gremio Prudente lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 44
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Agua Santa15101424:1431
2Ferroviaria1584322:1228
3Ituano1584322:1428
4Sao Jose EC1583421:1327
5Sertaozinho1574419:1925
6Votuporanguense1573516:1724
7Juventus-SP1565422:2023
8Piracicaba1564516:1522
9Osasco Sporting1557322:1822
10Santo Andre1553716:2218
11Taubate1538422:2317
12Internacional de Limeira1544715:1816
13Linense1527612:1813
14Monte Azul1526717:2212
15Gremio Prudente1519512:1612
16Sao Bento1512128:255