Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aguia Negra vs Aquidauanense

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Jo
41' Event
Eto'o I.
58' Event
Dudu

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2025 game between Aguia Negra and Aquidauanense finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aguia Negra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Aguia Negra
22%
Draws
60%
Aquidauanense
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Aquidauanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Aquidauanense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Aquidauanense's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 19%
Aquidauanense Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia Negra Aquidauanense
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 7 11
Draws 10 5
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 9, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Aquidauanense
6:0
Mar 3, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Aquidauanense
1:2
Feb 9, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Aguia Negra
1:1
Apr 15, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Aguia Negra
3:1
Mar 6, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Aquidauanense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguia Negra Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Mineiro
2 Goals
Assists Leader Jo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Aquidauanense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia Negra 20 / 100
Aquidauanense 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia Negra Aquidauanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AQU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Aguia Negra scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Aquidauanense let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Aguia Negra has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aguia Negra VS Aquidauanense
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.14
75% Over 1.5 57%
50% Over 2.5 29%
25% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Aguia Negra

(Home)
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Ivinhema
2 : 1
Aguia Negra
15 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 1
Corumbaense
11 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
Page 1 of 6

Aquidauanense

(Away)
20 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 2
Aquidauanense
11 Jul
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
7 de Setembro
04 Jul
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
0 : 1
Aquidauanense
27 Jun
Misto
2 : 0
Aquidauanense
20 Jun
Aquidauanense
1 : 0
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ivinhema961221:719
2Pantanal953117:718
3Dourados953117:718
4Operario MS951311:1216
5Costa Rica935114:1014
6Aguia Negra932414:1411
7Naviraiense923411:149
8Corumbaense92258:148
9Coxim92167:187
10Aquidauanense911712:294
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)