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Orense vs Aucas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
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Match Events

19' Event
Arroyo L.
Assist: Bolanos R.
27'
Quinonez S.
38' Event
Vasquez S.
Assist: Herrera A.

AI Match Summary

Orense in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Orense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Orense
30%
Draws
47%
Aucas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aucas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aucas lately — more wins on the board than Orense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Orense Clean Sheet 16%
Aucas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orense Aucas
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 16
Draws 4 5
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.21 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.62 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 23, 2026 Liga Pro
Orense vs Aucas
2:1
Mar 24, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Orense
3:2
Sep 21, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Orense
0:0
May 25, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Aucas
2:1
Aug 3, 2024 Liga Pro
Orense vs Aucas
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orense Compare

Top Goalscorer Vasquez S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quinonez S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Aucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Arroyo L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orense 36 / 100
Aucas 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orense Aucas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aucas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orense scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Aucas has conceded goals in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Orense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Orense VS Aucas
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Orense

(Home)
21 Sept
Manta
2 : 1
Orense
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
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Aucas

(Away)
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2
Macara
12 Sept
Manta
0 : 0
Aucas
07 Sept
Aucas
1 : 1
Barcelona SC
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)