Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Orense vs Aucas

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
VS
09:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Orense host Aucas in the Liga Pro. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Aucas have shipped 1 goals a game lately, while Orense have conceded 1.38 and scored 0.5. Past meetings favor Orense slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 24, 2026, ending 3:2. Model xG sits at 0.75 vs 1.31, favoring Aucas. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Orense
40%
Draws
29%
Aucas
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aucas lately — more wins on the board than Orense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Orense Clean Sheet 18%
Aucas Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orense Aucas
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 8 15
Draws 7 5
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 0.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Orense
3:2
Sep 21, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Orense
0:0
May 25, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Aucas
2:1
Aug 3, 2024 Liga Pro
Orense vs Aucas
4:0
Mar 2, 2024 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Orense
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orense 32 / 100
Aucas 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orense Aucas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orense scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Aucas has conceded goals in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Orense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Orense VS Aucas
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Orense

(Home)
17 Jul
Orense
0 : 2
Emelec
11 Jul
Manta
0 : 0
Orense
07 Jul
Orense
1 : 2
Tecnico U.
01 Jul
LDU Quito
3 : 0
Orense
27 May
Vinotinto
2 : 1
Orense
Page 1 of 6

Aucas

(Away)
16 Jul
Aucas
0 : 3
Independiente del Valle
12 Jul
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Aucas
08 Jul
Aucas
1 : 0
Guayaquil City
31 May
Mushuc Runa
0 : 0
Aucas
26 May
Aucas
3 : 1
Manta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle19151343:1946
2Barcelona SC2097422:1434
3U. Catolica2095631:1832
4Aucas1995521:1932
5Macara2085721:2129
6LDU Quito2084819:1628
7Dep. Cuenca2084819:2328
8Leones del Norte2076721:2027
9Emelec1976616:1727
10Tecnico U.19721019:2023
11Orense1965822:2623
12Guayaquil City1965817:2223
13Delfin2065913:1923
14Mushuc Runa1956824:2921
15Libertad2056918:2621
16Manta1934127:2413
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)