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Aguia Negra vs Bataguassu

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Sul-Matogrossense
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Match Events

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AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense game between Aguia Negra and Bataguassu finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Aguia Negra
33%
Draws
40%
Bataguassu
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Bataguassu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Bataguassu has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Aguia Negra.
  • Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Bataguassu.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Sul-Matogrossense provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 13%
Bataguassu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguia Negra Bataguassu
Matches Played 28 25
Wins 7 12
Draws 10 6
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 0.86 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.57 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.86 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.57 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Bataguassu
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguia Negra 27 / 100
Bataguassu 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguia Negra Bataguassu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia Negra scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Bataguassu let in goals in 76% of their last 25 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Aguia Negra went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Bataguassu lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aguia Negra VS Bataguassu
0.86 Goals Scored 1.75
1.57 Goals Conceded 2.13
86% Over 1.5 100%
43% Over 2.5 63%
14% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Naviraiense953113:918
2Operario MS945014:517
3Corumbaense934210:713
4Ivinhema933310:1112
5Bataguassu933315:1712
6Dourados924315:1410
7Clube de Regatas Aquidauana924312:1310
8Pantanal923410:159
9Costa Rica91536:108
10Aguia Negra91449:137