Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018

Lusitano FCV

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aguias do Moradal play Lusitano FCV in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018. Lusitano FCV are favorites here. Recently, Aguias do Moradal averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. Lusitano FCV averaged 1.16 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. In past meetings, Aguias do Moradal won 0, Lusitano FCV won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 27, 2020 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.78 for Aguias do Moradal and 1.84 for Lusitano FCV. This points to a Lusitano FCV double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%

Aguias do Moradal

15%

Draws

57%

Lusitano FCV

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lusitano FCV

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence

Aguias do Moradal picked up more points recently compared to Lusitano FCV.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.78 vs 1.84 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 55%

Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%

Aguias do Moradal Clean Sheet 10%

Lusitano FCV Clean Sheet 18%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aguias do Moradal	Lusitano FCV
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	6	10
Draws	3	4
Losses	21	18
Goals Scored	0.83	1.16
Goals Conceded	2.13	1.41
Expected Goals (xG)	0.80	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.80	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2020 Taça de Portugal

Lusitano FCV vs Aguias do Moradal

Possession: 49% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Apr 15, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Aguias do Moradal vs Lusitano FCV

Possession: 57% - 50% Cards: 2 - 1

0:3

Dec 17, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Lusitano FCV vs Aguias do Moradal

Possession: 56% - 53% Cards: 0 - 3

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguias do Moradal 27 / 100

Lusitano FCV 55 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aguias do Moradal Lusitano FCV

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lusitano FCV Win (2)

Secondary Pick Lusitano FCV & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +40%

5.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.2%

2.04

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aguias do Moradal attacking → ← attacking Lusitano FCV

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguias do Moradal scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Lusitano FCV let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Aguias do Moradal went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Lusitano FCV lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 34

0.80 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

2.80 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Leiria	30	23	4	3	68:21	73
2	Lusitano FCV	30	20	5	5	47:19	65
3	SB Castelo Branco	30	17	8	5	48:23	59
4	Sertanense	30	15	8	7	51:22	53
5	Agueda	30	14	7	9	39:32	49
6	Gafanha	30	13	9	8	36:23	48
7	Anadia	30	12	10	8	39:28	46
8	Maritimo B	30	14	3	13	44:30	45
9	Nogueirense	30	11	9	10	37:38	42
10	Oleiros	30	12	6	12	35:36	42
11	Marinhense	30	11	8	11	43:41	41
12	Mortagua FC	30	11	3	16	23:40	36
13	Ferreira de Aves	30	9	2	19	34:69	29
14	Aguias do Moradal	30	5	6	19	29:54	21
15	GD Sourense	30	3	8	19	28:57	17
16	Fornos de Algodres	30	0	4	26	15:83	4