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Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

77' Event
Castedo J.
85' Event
Hidalgo A.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Aguilas FC and Lorca Deportiva finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aguilas FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Aguilas FC
6%
Draws
4%
Lorca Deportiva
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Aguilas FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aguilas FC come out ahead of Lorca Deportiva on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Aguilas FC's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Aguilas FC Clean Sheet 68%
Lorca Deportiva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguilas FC Lorca Deportiva
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva
2:0
Dec 14, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Lorca Deportiva vs Aguilas FC
0:1
Aug 15, 2025 Club Friendly
Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva
1:1
Aug 15, 2024 Club Friendly
Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva
4:0
Aug 15, 2023 Club Friendly
Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguilas FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Castedo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hidalgo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lorca Deportiva Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguilas FC 95 / 100
Lorca Deportiva 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguilas FC Lorca Deportiva

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AGU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguilas FC has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Aguilas FC scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Lorca Deportiva's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Aguilas FC VS Lorca Deportiva
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CD Extremadura341712554:3863
2Deportiva Minera34196950:3363
3Aguilas FC34187945:2561
4Xerez CD34178932:2459
5Jaen341610843:3358
6Recreativo Huelva34169941:2557
7UCAM Murcia341671149:4155
8Linares341114942:4547
9La Union (Malacitano)341361544:4345
10Lorca Deportiva341291332:3645
11Yeclano341281433:3344
12Antoniano341281438:4044
13CD Estepona341281440:4444
14Puente Genil3410101428:3740
15Xerez Deportivo FC348121434:4336
16Melilla347131436:4034
17Almeria B34492126:5321
18Malaga B34562332:6621