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Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva

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Club Friendly 2025
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AI Match Summary

Aguilas FC play Lorca Deportiva in the Club Friendly 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aguilas FC averaged 1.39 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. Lorca Deportiva averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Aguilas FC won 3, Lorca Deportiva won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 19, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Aguilas FC and 0.76 for Lorca Deportiva. This points to a Aguilas FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Aguilas FC
26%
Draws
29%
Lorca Deportiva
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Aguilas FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Aguilas FC picked up more points recently compared to Lorca Deportiva.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 0.76 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Aguilas FC Clean Sheet 27%
Lorca Deportiva Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aguilas FC Lorca Deportiva
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 19 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.39 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva
2:0
Dec 14, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Lorca Deportiva vs Aguilas FC
0:1
Aug 15, 2025 Club Friendly
Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva
1:1
Aug 15, 2024 Club Friendly
Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva
4:0
Aug 15, 2023 Club Friendly
Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aguilas FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Escarabajal N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lorca Deportiva Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aguilas FC 46 / 100
Lorca Deportiva 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aguilas FC Lorca Deportiva

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aguilas FC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aguilas FC attacking → ← attacking Lorca Deportiva

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguilas FC scored in 76% of their last 33 games.

Lorca Deportiva let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Aguilas FC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Lorca Deportiva lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

63 Points in last 5 43
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50