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Ahal vs Arkadag

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
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AI Match Summary

The Yokary Liga game between Ahal and Arkadag finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arkadag.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Ahal
15%
Draws
53%
Arkadag
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arkadag

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arkadag come out ahead of Ahal on wins alone.
  • Arkadag are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).
  • History favors Arkadag here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Ahal Clean Sheet 10%
Arkadag Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ahal Arkadag
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 17 24
Draws 6 0
Losses 6 3
Goals Scored 2.21 3.41
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Ahal
2:1
May 20, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:4
Apr 12, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Ahal
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:1
Sep 21, 2025 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Ahal
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ahal 22 / 100
Arkadag 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ahal Arkadag

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arkadag Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ahal scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Solid form: Ahal remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Arkadag's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ahal VS Arkadag
2.5 Goals Scored 3.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ahal

(Home)
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
22 Aug
Ahal
4 : 0
Merw
16 Aug
Arkadag
2 : 1
Ahal
07 Aug
Ahal
3 : 0
Kopetdag Asgabat
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Arkadag

(Away)
05 Sept
Nebitci
2 : 4
Arkadag
30 Aug
Sagadam
0 : 3
Arkadag
26 Aug
Arkadag
3 : 0
FC Asgabat
22 Aug
Altyn Asyr
2 : 5
Arkadag
16 Aug
Arkadag
2 : 1
Ahal
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