Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ahal vs Merw

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
4 - 0
FT
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ahal in this Yokary Liga matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ahal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Ahal
15%
Draws
26%
Merw
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ahal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Merw haven't matched Ahal's recent run of results.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Ahal taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ahal here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Ahal Clean Sheet 20%
Merw Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ahal Merw
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 5
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 2.25 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.07 2.61
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Merw
4:0
May 24, 2026 Yokary Liga
Merw vs Ahal
1:3
Apr 18, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Merw
2:2
Dec 11, 2025 Yokary Liga
Merw vs Ahal
0:2
Dec 4, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Merw
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ahal 85 / 100
Merw 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ahal Merw

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ahal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ahal's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Merw conceded in 93% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Solid form: Ahal remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ahal VS Merw
2.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ahal

(Home)
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
22 Aug
Ahal
4 : 0
Merw
16 Aug
Arkadag
2 : 1
Ahal
07 Aug
Ahal
3 : 0
Kopetdag Asgabat
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Merw

(Away)
12 Sept
Merw
2 : 2
Kopetdag Asgabat
30 Aug
Merw
3 : 2
FC Asgabat
22 Aug
Ahal
4 : 0
Merw
15 Aug
Merw
0 : 1
Nebitci
06 Aug
Arkadag
7 : 0
Merw
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