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Ahal vs Sagadam

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ahal in this Yokary Liga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ahal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Ahal
15%
Draws
34%
Sagadam
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ahal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ahal lately — more wins on the board than Sagadam.
  • Model gives Ahal a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Yokary Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ahal have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Ahal Clean Sheet 20%
Sagadam Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ahal Sagadam
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 9
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 16
Goals Scored 2.31 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Yokary Liga
Sagadam vs Ahal
2:1
Jun 7, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Sagadam
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Yokary Liga
Sagadam vs Ahal
1:3
Dec 1, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Sagadam
1:0
Nov 26, 2025 Yokary Liga
Sagadam vs Ahal
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ahal 85 / 100
Sagadam 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ahal Sagadam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ahal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ahal scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Sagadam has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Ahal stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ahal VS Sagadam
2.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ahal

(Home)
19 Sept
FC Asgabat
3 : 4
Ahal
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
22 Aug
Ahal
4 : 0
Merw
16 Aug
Arkadag
2 : 1
Ahal
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Sagadam

(Away)
19 Sept
Sagadam
0 : 2
Merw
12 Sept
Altyn Asyr
2 : 0
Sagadam
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
30 Aug
Sagadam
0 : 3
Arkadag
22 Aug
Sagadam
3 : 2
Kopetdag Asgabat
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