Sport Picks
Match Events
85'
85'
Castillion G.
AI Match Summary
The Derde Divisie 2024/2025 game between Ajax (Am) and HBC finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ajax (Am).
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: HBC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Ajax (Am) carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives HBC a 85% chance of winning this.
- Regular Derde Divisie 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Ajax (Am) Clean Sheet 11%
HBC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ajax (Am) | HBC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 31 |
| Wins | 6 | 1 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 18 | 23 |
| Goals Scored | 1.32 | 1.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.06 | 2.71 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 12, 2025 Derde Divisie
Ajax (Am) vs HBC
1:0
Nov 10, 2024 Derde Divisie
HBC vs Ajax (Am)
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ajax (Am) Compare
Top Goalscorer Castillion G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
HBC Compare
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ajax (Am) 27 / 100
HBC 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ajax (Am) HBC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick HBC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Ajax (Am) scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.
HBC has conceded goals in 100% of their last 31 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.
HBC lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ajax (Am) VS HBC
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Ajax (Am)
(Home) 02 Sept
VVSB
2 : 0 Ajax (Am)
29 Jul
Ajax (Am)
3 : 4 Jong Almere City
04 Jun
Ajax (Am)
0 : 1 Kampong
31 May
Kampong
4 : 2 Ajax (Am)
24 May
Genemuiden
1 : 0 Ajax (Am)
Page 1 of 7
29 Jul
Ajax (Am)
3 : 4 Jong Almere City
04 Jun
Ajax (Am)
0 : 1 Kampong
17 May
Ajax (Am)
1 : 4 Sportlust
03 May
Ajax (Am)
2 : 0 VV DOVO
12 Apr
Ajax (Am)
1 : 0 HBC
Page 1 of 4
HBC
(Away) 07 Jun
HVV Hollandia
2 : 0 HBC
03 Jun
HBC
0 : 1 HVV Hollandia
30 May
Flevo Boys
1 : 1 HBC
27 May
HBC
3 : 1 Flevo Boys
24 May
HBC
0 : 2 Huizen
Page 1 of 7
07 Jun
HVV Hollandia
2 : 0 HBC
30 May
Flevo Boys
1 : 1 HBC
17 May
USV Hercules
2 : 0 HBC
03 May
Eemdijk
2 : 2 HBC
12 Apr
Ajax (Am)
1 : 0 HBC
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IJsselmeervogels | 34 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 98:35 | 82 |
| 2 | Harkemase Boys | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 74:46 | 70 |
| 3 | Sportlust | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 78:37 | 67 |
| 4 | DVS '33 Ermelo | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 78:52 | 65 |
| 5 | Sparta Nijkerk | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 68:50 | 58 |
| 6 | USV Hercules | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 65:56 | 54 |
| 7 | VV DOVO | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 43:39 | 52 |
| 8 | Genemuiden | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 52:44 | 48 |
| 9 | Urk | 34 | 15 | 2 | 17 | 56:67 | 47 |
| 10 | Eemdijk | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 64:66 | 43 |
| 11 | TEC | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46:56 | 42 |
| 12 | Rohda Raalte | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 63:68 | 40 |
| 13 | HSC '21 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 18 | 50:66 | 40 |
| 14 | Huizen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 44:62 | 36 |
| 15 | Excelsior 31 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 46:71 | 36 |
| 16 | Ajax (Am) | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 48:64 | 35 |
| 17 | DEM | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 43:85 | 30 |
| 18 | HBC | 34 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 40:92 | 10 |
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2024/2025 (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie 2024/2025 (Relegation)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HSV Hoek | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 77:33 | 70 |
| 2 | Kozakken Boys | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 72:29 | 64 |
| 3 | Blauw Geel | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 73:45 | 64 |
| 4 | VV Kloetinge | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 66:42 | 61 |
| 5 | Gemert | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 57:50 | 58 |
| 6 | Lisse | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55:41 | 54 |
| 7 | UNA | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 51:48 | 53 |
| 8 | VVSB | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 61:61 | 51 |
| 9 | SteDoCo | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 57:46 | 48 |
| 10 | Meerssen | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 44:50 | 45 |
| 11 | Rijnvogels | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 63:72 | 45 |
| 12 | ASWH | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 59:73 | 42 |
| 13 | TOGB | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 55:53 | 41 |
| 14 | GOES | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 53:65 | 39 |
| 15 | OJC Rosmalen | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 45:58 | 39 |
| 16 | FC 's-Gravenzande | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 51:69 | 34 |
| 17 | Smitshoek | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 53:94 | 25 |
| 18 | HV & CV Quick | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 42:105 | 19 |
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2024/2025 (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie 2024/2025 (Relegation)
