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Ajax vs PSV - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
1 - 3
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Pepi R.
Assist: van Bommel R.
16'
Sano K.
23' Event
Arokodare T.

AI Match Summary

The Eredivisie game between Ajax and PSV finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward PSV.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Ajax
15%
Draws
27%
PSV
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ajax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • PSV haven't matched Ajax's recent run of results.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Ajax taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Ajax Clean Sheet 13%
PSV Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ajax PSV
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 20 17
Draws 7 5
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 2.44 2.73
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Eredivisie
Ajax vs PSV
1:3
May 2, 2026 Eredivisie
Ajax vs PSV
2:2
Sep 21, 2025 Eredivisie
PSV vs Ajax
2:2
Mar 30, 2025 Eredivisie
PSV vs Ajax
0:2
Nov 2, 2024 Eredivisie
Ajax vs PSV
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Arokodare T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

PSV Compare

Top Goalscorer Pepi R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Geertruida L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax 75 / 100
PSV 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ajax PSV

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ajax Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 8:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax scored in 97% of their last 32 games.

PSV's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Ajax has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ajax VS PSV
2.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ajax

(Home)
05 Nov
Midtjylland
1 : 6
Ajax
31 Oct
Ajax
1 : 0
AZ Alkmaar
25 Oct
Sparta Rotterdam
1 : 2
Ajax
22 Oct
Ajax
2 : 0
Atalanta
18 Oct
Groningen
2 : 5
Ajax
Page 1 of 7

PSV

(Away)
04 Nov
PSV
1 : 2
Club Brugge
31 Oct
PSV
7 : 0
Willem II
25 Oct
PSV
1 : 1
Feyenoord
20 Oct
FC Porto
0 : 1
PSV
17 Oct
Den Haag
2 : 1
PSV
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Feyenoord 11 7 4 0 33:12 25
2 Ajax 11 7 3 1 30:13 24
3 PSV 11 7 2 2 35:13 23
4 Twente 11 7 2 2 28:10 23
5 AZ Alkmaar 11 6 2 3 20:13 20
6 Sittard 11 5 4 2 18:18 19
7 Heerenveen 11 5 3 3 19:13 18
8 Groningen 11 4 3 4 26:24 15
9 Cambuur 11 4 3 4 23:22 15
10 G.A. Eagles 11 3 5 3 23:27 14
11 Sparta Rotterdam 11 3 3 5 20:26 12
12 Utrecht 11 3 3 5 19:31 12
13 Zwolle 12 3 3 6 13:24 12
14 Nijmegen 11 2 5 4 17:19 11
15 Excelsior 11 3 2 6 16:28 11
16 Telstar 11 2 3 6 16:23 9
17 Den Haag 11 1 3 7 13:24 6
18 Willem II 12 0 3 9 11:40 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)