Sport Picks

Netherlands

Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Ajax W

3 - 1

AZ Alkmaar W

Our Tip

Match Events

42'

Mol C.

47'

Noordman D.

Assist: Visscher A.

65'

Sub

Bakker E. In: van Bentum M.

Out: Bakker E.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ajax W in this Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ajax W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Ajax W

Draws

AZ Alkmaar W

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Ajax W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Ajax W lately — more wins on the board than AZ Alkmaar W.
Ajax W are the model's pick here, at 90%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%

Ajax W Clean Sheet 68%

AZ Alkmaar W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ajax W	AZ Alkmaar W
Matches Played	27	28
Wins	15	8
Draws	6	8
Losses	6	12
Goals Scored	1.88	1.63
Goals Conceded	0.63	2.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Eredivisie Women

Ajax W vs AZ Alkmaar W

Possession: 42% - 46% Cards: 3 - 2

3:1

Dec 12, 2025 KNVB Beker Women

Ajax W vs AZ Alkmaar W

Possession: 56% - 54% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Sep 28, 2025 Eredivisie Women

AZ Alkmaar W vs Ajax W

Possession: 45% - 60% Cards: 2 - 3

0:0

Jan 19, 2025 Eredivisie Women

Ajax W vs AZ Alkmaar W

Possession: 59% - 46% Cards: 0 - 2

4:2

Oct 6, 2024 Eredivisie Women

AZ Alkmaar W vs Ajax W

Possession: 54% - 49% Cards: 3 - 0

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ajax W Compare

Top Goalscorer Noordman D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Spitse S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

AZ Alkmaar W Compare

Top Goalscorer van Lunteren D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax W 95 / 100

AZ Alkmaar W 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ajax W AZ Alkmaar W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AJA Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax W scored in 81% of their last 27 games.

AZ Alkmaar W let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Ajax W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ajax W VS AZ Alkmaar W

1.88 Goals Scored 1.63

0.63 Goals Conceded 2.25

75% Over 1.5 100%

38% Over 2.5 75%

38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	PSV W	22	17	3	2	56:15	54
2	Ajax W	22	15	5	2	55:18	50
3	Feyenoord W	22	14	5	3	45:17	47
4	Twente W	22	14	4	4	55:19	46
5	Utrecht W	22	11	4	7	41:37	37
6	PEC Zwolle W	22	11	1	10	35:32	34
7	Heerenveen W	22	8	2	12	38:51	26
8	AZ Alkmaar W	22	6	6	10	36:46	24
9	Den Haag W	22	6	4	12	24:45	22
10	Hera United W	22	5	5	12	24:42	20
11	SBV Excelsior W	22	2	2	18	18:51	8
12	NAC Breda W	22	2	1	19	17:71	7