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Ajax W vs AZ Alkmaar W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Ouder-Amstel
Ajax W Logo

Ajax W

3 - 1
FT
AZ Alkmaar W Logo

AZ Alkmaar W

Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Mol C.
47' Event
Noordman D.
Assist: Visscher A.
65'
Sub
Bakker E. In: van Bentum M.
Out: Bakker E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ajax W in this Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ajax W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Ajax W
15%
Draws
28%
AZ Alkmaar W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ajax W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ajax W lately — more wins on the board than AZ Alkmaar W.
  • Ajax W are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Ajax W Clean Sheet 68%
AZ Alkmaar W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ajax W AZ Alkmaar W
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 19 11
Draws 4 6
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 2.25 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Eredivisie Women
Ajax W vs AZ Alkmaar W
5:1
May 8, 2026 Eredivisie Women
Ajax W vs AZ Alkmaar W
3:1
Dec 12, 2025 KNVB Beker Women
Ajax W vs AZ Alkmaar W
1:2
Sep 28, 2025 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Ajax W
0:0
Jan 19, 2025 Eredivisie Women
Ajax W vs AZ Alkmaar W
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ajax W Compare

Top Goalscorer Noordman D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Spitse S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

AZ Alkmaar W Compare

Top Goalscorer van Lunteren D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ajax W 95 / 100
AZ Alkmaar W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ajax W AZ Alkmaar W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ajax W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ajax W scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

AZ Alkmaar W let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Ajax W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ajax W VS AZ Alkmaar W
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ajax W

(Home)
04 Oct
Feyenoord W
1 : 4
Ajax W
30 Sept
Aktobe W
1 : 0
Ajax W
26 Sept
Ajax W
7 : 1
Den Haag W
23 Sept
Ajax W
8 : 0
Aktobe W
19 Sept
Ajax W
5 : 1
AZ Alkmaar W
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AZ Alkmaar W

(Away)
04 Oct
De Graafschap W
3 : 0
AZ Alkmaar W
27 Sept
AZ Alkmaar W
0 : 5
Twente W
19 Sept
Ajax W
5 : 1
AZ Alkmaar W
13 Sept
AZ Alkmaar W
3 : 1
PSV W
06 Sept
AZ Alkmaar W
1 : 0
Utrecht W
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSV W 22 17 3 2 56:15 54
2 Ajax W 22 15 5 2 55:18 50
3 Feyenoord W 22 14 5 3 45:17 47
4 Twente W 22 14 4 4 55:19 46
5 Utrecht W 22 11 4 7 41:37 37
6 PEC Zwolle W 22 11 1 10 35:32 34
7 Heerenveen W 22 8 2 12 38:51 26
8 AZ Alkmaar W 22 6 6 10 36:46 24
9 Den Haag W 22 6 4 12 24:45 22
10 Hera United W 22 5 5 12 24:42 20
11 SBV Excelsior W 22 2 2 18 18:51 8
12 NAC Breda W 22 2 1 19 17:71 7
Promotion - UEFA Champions League Women (League phase)
Promotion - UEFA Europa Cup Women (Qualification)