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AJEL vs Mbour

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026
AJEL Logo

AJEL

0 - 1
FT
Mbour Logo

Mbour

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between AJEL and Mbour finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mbour.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
AJEL
30%
Draws
23%
Mbour
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AJEL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • AJEL carry the better recent record into this one.
  • AJEL are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 8%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.4%
AJEL Clean Sheet 68%
Mbour Clean Sheet 23%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AJEL Mbour
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 9 18
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 0.9 0.6
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.44 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Ligue 1
AJEL vs Mbour
0:1
Jan 7, 2026 Ligue 1
Mbour vs AJEL
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AJEL 50 / 100
Mbour 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AJEL Mbour

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AJEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AJEL scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: AJEL stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Mbour's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

AJEL VS Mbour
0.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
25% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AJEL

(Home)
04 Jun
Generation Foot
0 : 1
AJEL
22 May
AJEL
2 : 1
Linguere
17 May
US Goree
2 : 1
AJEL
13 May
AJEL
1 : 0
Guediawaye
10 May
Teungueth
0 : 0
AJEL
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Mbour

(Away)
04 Jun
US Goree
0 : 0
Mbour
22 May
Mbour
0 : 2
Guediawaye
17 May
Teungueth
2 : 0
Mbour
13 May
Dakar Sacre-Coeur
0 : 2
Mbour
10 May
Mbour
1 : 1
Wally Daan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)