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Stadium Background

Akademiya Ontustik vs Shakhter Karagandy

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Akademiya Ontustik Logo

Akademiya Ontustik

1 - 2
FT
Shakhter Karagandy Logo

Shakhter Karagandy

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Galkin M.
Assist: Litosh A.
47' Event
Ali A.
Assist: Niyazkulov B.
90' Event
Litosh A.
Assist: Ulshin A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Shakhter Karagandy in this First League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Akademiya Ontustik
20%
Draws
40%
Shakhter Karagandy
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Shakhter Karagandy lately — more wins on the board than Akademiya Ontustik.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Shakhter Karagandy taking it.
  • Regular First League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Shakhter Karagandy have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Akademiya Ontustik Clean Sheet 10%
Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Akademiya Ontustik Shakhter Karagandy
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 24
Draws 4 3
Losses 9 3
Goals Scored 1.63 2.7
Goals Conceded 1.33 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 2, 2026 First League
Akademiya Ontustik vs Shakhter Karagandy
1:2
Sep 25, 2025 First League
Akademiya Ontustik vs Shakhter Karagandy
0:2
Jun 27, 2025 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Akademiya Ontustik Compare

Top Goalscorer Ali A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Galkin M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Litosh A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Akademiya Ontustik 10 / 100
Shakhter Karagandy 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Akademiya Ontustik Shakhter Karagandy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhter Karagandy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Akademiya Ontustik scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.33 goals when they meet.

Akademiya Ontustik went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Shakhter Karagandy let in goals in 27% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Akademiya Ontustik VS Shakhter Karagandy
2 Goals Scored 3.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Akademiya Ontustik

(Home)
17 Sept
Akademiya Ontustik
0 : 0
Jaiyq
10 Sept
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 1
Akademiya Ontustik
03 Sept
Akademiya Ontustik
2 : 1
Aktobe 2
27 Aug
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Akademiya Ontustik
20 Aug
Akademiya Ontustik
3 : 2
FC Ekibastuz
Page 1 of 6

Shakhter Karagandy

(Away)
17 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
0 : 0
Taraz
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
03 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
Khan Tengri
27 Aug
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 3
Shakhter Karagandy
21 Aug
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
FC Astana 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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