Sport Picks

Kazakhstan

First League 2025

Akademiya Ontustik

0 - 2

Shakhter Karagandy

Our Tip

Match Events

Kalybayev D.

30'

Galkin M.

Assist: Nusip A.

46'

Sub

Niyazkulov B. In: Kazhigaliev A.

Out: Niyazkulov B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Shakhter Karagandy in this First League 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%

Akademiya Ontustik

22%

Draws

60%

Shakhter Karagandy

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Shakhter Karagandy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Shakhter Karagandy lately — more wins on the board than Akademiya Ontustik.
Shakhter Karagandy are the model's pick here, at 60%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
These two have met 3 times recently and Shakhter Karagandy have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Akademiya Ontustik Clean Sheet 10%

Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Akademiya Ontustik	Shakhter Karagandy
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	14	21
Draws	4	4
Losses	12	6
Goals Scored	1.5	2.75
Goals Conceded	1.38	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 2, 2026 First League

Akademiya Ontustik vs Shakhter Karagandy

Possession: 46% - 47% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Sep 25, 2025 First League

Akademiya Ontustik vs Shakhter Karagandy

Possession: 51% - 54% Cards: 2 - 1

0:2

Jun 27, 2025 First League

Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik

Possession: 59% - 51% Cards: 2 - 4

4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Akademiya Ontustik Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Galkin M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Shymyrkhan S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.5

Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Akademiya Ontustik 18 / 100

Shakhter Karagandy 57 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Akademiya Ontustik Shakhter Karagandy

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SHA Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Akademiya Ontustik scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

Akademiya Ontustik went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Shakhter Karagandy conceded in 42% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Akademiya Ontustik VS Shakhter Karagandy

1.5 Goals Scored 2.75

1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63

75% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kaspij Aktau	26	22	2	2	74:27	68
2	Ertis Pavlodar	26	19	4	3	71:20	61
3	Altai	26	17	4	5	54:23	55
4	Shakhter Karagandy	26	16	5	5	61:34	53
5	Zhetisay	26	13	3	10	44:35	42
6	Kairat Almaty 2	26	12	4	10	58:42	40
7	Akademiya Ontustik	26	12	3	11	44:44	39
8	Taraz	26	10	5	11	43:38	35
9	AKAS	26	10	3	13	42:39	33
10	FC Ekibastuz	26	8	4	14	36:60	28
11	SD Family	26	7	2	17	33:75	23
12	Khan Tengri	26	5	3	18	27:55	18
13	Aktobe 2	26	3	7	16	34:65	16
14	Turkistan	26	2	3	21	16:80	9