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Al Ahed vs Al Sahel - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2025/2026 Beirut Municipal Stadium, Beirut
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Ito
Assist: Kawam B.
45' Event
Nasser M.
Assist: Al Massri M.
45' Event
Antar F.
Assist: Al Massri M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Al Ahed and Al Sahel finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahed.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Al Ahed
30%
Draws
54%
Al Sahel
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Sahel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Ahed carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on Al Sahel taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al Ahed here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 17%
Al Sahel Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahed Al Sahel
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 11
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.48 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.34 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.30 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Al Sahel
4:2
Dec 20, 2025 Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
1:8
Sep 24, 2023 Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
0:5
Apr 24, 2023 Lebanese Cup
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Ito
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nasser M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.65

Al Sahel Compare

Top Goalscorer Dakwar H.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahed 28 / 100
Al Sahel 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahed Al Sahel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Sahel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.40 goals per match.

Al Ahed's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Al Sahel has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Al Ahed remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahed VS Al Sahel
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.86
75% Over 1.5 43%
63% Over 2.5 29%
50% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahed

(Home)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
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Al Sahel

(Away)
08 Oct
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Tadamon
02 Jul
Jwayya SC
0 : 0
Al Sahel
28 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 2
Al Sahel
24 Jun
Al Sahel
3 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
16 Jun
Al Sahel
2 : 0
Racing
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)