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Al Ahed vs Tadamon

Lebanon Lebanon

Lebanese Cup Beirut Municipal Stadium
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Match Events

72' Event
Selorm G.
75' Event
Anez M.
Assist: Mansour N.
83' Event
Al Massri M.
Assist: Sidiki Toure A.

AI Match Summary

Al Ahed in this Lebanese Cup matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Ahed.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Al Ahed
11%
Draws
9%
Tadamon
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Al Ahed

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Al Ahed have won more games recently than Tadamon.
  • Win probability leans Al Ahed's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Cup games in Lebanese Cup usually bring a different intensity than the league.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Ahed have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 20%
Tadamon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahed Tadamon
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 5
Draws 3 9
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Tadamon
0:0
Jan 18, 2026 Lebanese Cup
Al Ahed vs Tadamon
3:1
Oct 25, 2025 Premier League
Tadamon vs Al Ahed
0:2
Jul 8, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Tadamon
5:3
May 24, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Tadamon
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Anez M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Al Massri M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tadamon Compare

Top Goalscorer Selorm G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahed 76 / 100
Tadamon 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahed Tadamon

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AHE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Al Ahed's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Tadamon let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Al Ahed has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahed VS Tadamon
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nejmeh SC1
Al Ansar0
Jwayya SC2
Safa1
Al Ahed3
Tadamon1
Al Hikma2
Al-Mabarrah1
Semi-finals
Nejmeh SC2
Jwayya SC1
Al Ahed0
Al Hikma1
Final
Nejmeh SC2
Al Hikma0