Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Ahed vs Tadamon

Lebanon Lebanon

Lebanese Cup Beirut Municipal Stadium, Beirut
Our Tip

Match Events

72' Event
Selorm G.
75' Event
Anez M.
Assist: Mansour N.
83' Event
Al Massri M.
Assist: Sidiki Toure A.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Al Ahed
30%
Draws
54%
Tadamon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tadamon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Al Ahed have won more games recently than Tadamon.
  • Win probability leans Al Ahed's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Al Ahed have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Ahed, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Ahed have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 18%
Tadamon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahed Tadamon
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 4 9
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.58 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Tadamon
0:0
Jan 18, 2026 Lebanese Cup
Al Ahed vs Tadamon
3:1
Oct 25, 2025 Premier League
Tadamon vs Al Ahed
0:2
Jul 8, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Tadamon
5:3
May 24, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Tadamon
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Anez M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Al Massri M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Tadamon Compare

Top Goalscorer Selorm G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahed 36 / 100
Tadamon 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahed Tadamon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Al Ahed found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Tadamon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Al Ahed went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahed VS Tadamon
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahed

(Home)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
Page 1 of 7

Tadamon

(Away)
29 Jul
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 1
Tadamon
21 Jul
Tadamon
1 : 0
Racing
17 Jul
Tadamon
0 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
10 Jul
Racing
1 : 3
Tadamon
03 Jul
Tadamon
0 : 3
Al Ansar
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nejmeh SC 1
Al Ansar 0
Jwayya SC 2
Safa 1
Al Ahed 3
Tadamon 1
Al Hikma 2
Al-Mabarrah 1
Semi-finals
Nejmeh SC 2
Jwayya SC 1
Al Ahed 0
Al Hikma 1
Final
Nejmeh SC 2
Al Hikma 0