Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Ahli SC vs Al Fateh

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League King Abdullah Sports City
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Al Swealem A.
27' Event
Toney I.
(Penalty)
32'
Sub
Kessie F. In: Matheus Goncalves
Out: Kessie F.

AI Match Summary

The Saudi Professional League game between Al Ahli SC and Al Fateh finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahli SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Al Ahli SC
17%
Draws
13%
Al Fateh
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Al Ahli SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ahli SC come out ahead of Al Fateh on wins alone.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahli SC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Al Ahli SC Clean Sheet 20%
Al Fateh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli SC Al Fateh
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 21 8
Draws 3 9
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.88 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Ahli SC vs Al Fateh
3:1
Dec 26, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Fateh vs Al Ahli SC
2:1
Feb 7, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Ahli SC vs Al Fateh
2:0
Aug 27, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Fateh vs Al Ahli SC
1:0
Mar 2, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Ahli SC vs Al Fateh
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahli SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Toney I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Al Fateh Compare

Top Goalscorer Bendebka S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli SC 67 / 100
Al Fateh 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli SC Al Fateh

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AHL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahli SC scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Al Fateh's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Al Ahli SC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahli SC VS Al Fateh
1.88 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Nassr34282491:2886
2Al Hilal34259085:2784
3Al Ahli SC34256371:2581
4Al Qadsiah34238383:3477
5Al Ittihad341671155:4855
6Al Taawon341581159:4653
7Al Ettifaq FC341481251:5550
8Neom SC341291343:4845
9Al Hazem Rass341191438:5742
10Al Fayha341081641:5438
11Al Fateh349101541:5537
12Al Khaleej341071754:6237
13Al Shabab348111544:5735
14Al Kholood34961939:6133
15Al Riyadh34791835:6330
16Damac346111732:5529
17Al Okhdood34552427:7020
18Al Najma34372432:7616