Sport Picks
Al Ahli SC vs Al Riyadh - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Professional League King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah 
Match Events
16'
16'
Toney I.
(Penalty)
43'
43'
Spertsyan E.
Assist: Balobaid S.
45'
45'
Trincao F.
Assist: Balobaid S.
AI Match Summary
Al Ahli SC in this Saudi Professional League matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Ahli SC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
30%
37%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Riyadh
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Al Ahli SC lately — more wins on the board than Al Riyadh.
- Model gives Al Ahli SC a 33% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Al Ahli SC here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Al Ahli SC Clean Sheet 20%
Al Riyadh Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al Ahli SC | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 18 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 9 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.87 | 1.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 4, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Ahli SC vs Al Riyadh
5:0
Feb 26, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Riyadh vs Al Ahli SC
0:1
Oct 30, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Ahli SC vs Al Riyadh
1:1
May 26, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Riyadh vs Al Ahli SC
0:1
Jan 26, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Ahli SC vs Al Riyadh
5:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Al Ahli SC Compare
Top Goalscorer Spertsyan E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Trincao F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Al Riyadh Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Al Ahli SC 85 / 100
Al Riyadh 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Al Ahli SC Al Riyadh
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Al Ahli SC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Al Ahli SC scored in 90% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: Al Riyadh conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Al Ahli SC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Al Ahli SC VS Al Riyadh
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Al Ahli SC
(Home) 09 Oct
Al Fateh
0 : 4 Al Ahli SC
19 Sept
Mamelodi Sundowns
2 : 1 Al Ahli SC
14 Sept
Al Ahli SC
1 : 1 Pakhtakor
11 Sept
Al Ahli SC
3 : 1 Al Hazem Rass
08 Sept
Al Qadsiah
3 : 2 Al Ahli SC
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Al Ahli SC
1 : 1 Pakhtakor
11 Sept
Al Ahli SC
3 : 1 Al Hazem Rass
04 Sept
Al Ahli SC
5 : 0 Al Riyadh
26 Aug
Al Ahli SC
1 : 0 Auckland FC
22 Aug
Al Ahli SC
4 : 0 Abha
Page 1 of 3
Al Riyadh
(Away) 13 Sept
Al Riyadh
2 : 0 Al Kholood
07 Sept
Al Khaleej
0 : 0 Al Riyadh
04 Sept
Al Ahli SC
5 : 0 Al Riyadh
28 Aug
Al Riyadh
1 : 0 Neom SC
25 Aug
Al Shabab
3 : 3 Al Riyadh
Page 1 of 6
07 Sept
Al Khaleej
0 : 0 Al Riyadh
04 Sept
Al Ahli SC
5 : 0 Al Riyadh
25 Aug
Al Shabab
3 : 3 Al Riyadh
17 Aug
Al Zulfi
0 : 2 Al Riyadh
14 Aug
Al Ettifaq FC
4 : 2 Al Riyadh
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Qadsiah | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21:8 | 19 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19:7 | 19 |
| 3 | Al Hilal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 23:5 | 18 |
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:6 | 17 |
| 5 | Al Ahli SC | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20:10 | 15 |
| 6 | Neom SC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13:6 | 15 |
| 7 | Al Kholood | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:15 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Ettifaq FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Diriyah | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | 11 |
| 10 | Al Hazem Rass | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:16 | 8 |
| 12 | Al Fayha | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:11 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Khaleej | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3:10 | 5 |
| 14 | Al Shabab | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 15 | Al Faisaly | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5:13 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Taawon | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3:12 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Fateh | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4:15 | 3 |
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5:13 | 2 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 2027/2028 (Main)
