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Al Ahli vs Lusail Prediction & H2H Stats

Qatar Qatar

QSL Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
Al Ahli Logo

Al Ahli

3 - 3
FT
Lusail Logo

Lusail

Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Draxler J.
(Penalty)
12' Event
Rodrigo
(Penalty)
16'
Reyed A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this QSL matchup, with the score ending 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Al Ahli
35%
Draws
42%
Lusail
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lusail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Ahli lately — more wins on the board than Lusail.
  • Model gives Lusail a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular QSL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 10%
Lusail Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli Lusail
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 6 9
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 1.47 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.94 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 QSL
Al Ahli vs Lusail
3:3
Sep 24, 2025 QSL Cup
Lusail vs Al Ahli
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahli Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohammed I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Lusail Compare

Top Goalscorer Zavoshi F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodrigo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli 10 / 100
Lusail 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli Lusail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lusail Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahli found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (32 games).

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Lusail has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Al Ahli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahli VS Lusail
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahli

(Home)
29 Sept
Al Markhiya
1 : 1
Al Ahli
20 Sept
Al Ahli
0 : 1
Al-Shahaniya
11 Sept
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Al Ahli
03 Sept
Al Ahli
1 : 0
Qatar SC
28 Aug
Al Ahli
3 : 3
Lusail
Page 1 of 7

Lusail

(Away)
29 Sept
Al-Waab
1 : 1
Lusail
21 Sept
Lusail
1 : 0
Al Markhiya
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
04 Sept
Lusail
4 : 0
Al Wakra
28 Aug
Al Ahli
3 : 3
Lusail
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 4 4 0 0 19:7 12
2 Al Rayyan 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
3 Shamal 4 2 2 0 10:6 8
4 Al Arabi (Qatar) 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
5 Al-Duhail 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
6 Lusail 4 1 2 1 7:4 5
7 Al-Shahaniya 4 1 1 2 7:9 4
8 Al Ahli 4 1 1 2 5:9 4
9 Al-Gharafa 4 1 1 2 4:8 4
10 Qatar SC 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
11 Al Wakra 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
12 Al Sailiya 4 0 0 4 5:13 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - QSL (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 2027/2028 (Main)