Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Ahli vs Lusail

Qatar Qatar

QSL Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
Fri, Aug 28, 2026
VS
02:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Ahli host Lusail in the QSL. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Al Ahli have averaged 1.5 scored and 1.13 conceded recently, against Lusail's 1.43 scored and 1.71 conceded. Head-to-head, Al Ahli have won 0 to Lusail's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Sep 24, 2025, ending 4:1. xG projections (1.60 - 1.28) back Lusail to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Al Ahli
28%
Draws
22%
Lusail
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Al Ahli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Al Ahli at 1.5 per game, Lusail at 1.43.
  • Model gives Al Ahli a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular QSL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 19%
Lusail Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli Lusail
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 5 6
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2025 QSL Cup
Lusail vs Al Ahli
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli 49 / 100
Lusail 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli Lusail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AHL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahli found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Lusail has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Al Ahli went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahli VS Lusail
1.5 Goals Scored 1.43
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.71
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 71%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahli

(Home)
27 Apr
Umm-Salal
1 : 3
Al Ahli
22 Apr
Al Nassr
5 : 1
Al Ahli
19 Apr
Al Ahli
3 : 1
Al Hussein
08 Apr
Al Ahli
2 : 1
Al-Duhail
03 Apr
Al Ahli
2 : 2
Al Sailiya
Page 1 of 6

Lusail

(Away)
24 Jul
Den Bosch
2 : 1
Lusail
18 Jul
Dordrecht
5 : 0
Lusail
30 Apr
Lusail
1 : 2
Al Bidda
25 Apr
Al Markhiya
0 : 2
Lusail
12 Apr
Lusail
3 : 0
Al Mesaimeer
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Sadd00000:00
2Al-Gharafa00000:00
3Al Arabi (Qatar)00000:00
4Al Rayyan00000:00
5Qatar SC00000:00
6Al Wakra00000:00
7Al Sailiya00000:00
8Al Ahli00000:00
9Al-Duhail00000:00
10Shamal00000:00
11Al-Shahaniya00000:00
12Lusail00000:00
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - QSL (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)