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Al Ahli vs Sitra

Bahrain Bahrain

Premier League 2025/2026
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AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Al Ahli and Sitra finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sitra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Al Ahli
35%
Draws
45%
Sitra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sitra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ahli come out ahead of Sitra on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sitra have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 23%
Sitra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli Sitra
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 11 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.35 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2026 Premier League
Sitra vs Al Ahli
0:2
Dec 28, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahli vs Sitra
1:2
Apr 22, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahli vs Sitra
2:3
Feb 27, 2025 King's Cup
Sitra vs Al Ahli
2:1
Oct 21, 2024 Premier League
Sitra vs Al Ahli
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli 33 / 100
Sitra 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli Sitra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sitra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Al Ahli scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Al Ahli remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Sitra conceded in 56% of 34 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Ahli VS Sitra
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahli

(Home)
12 Sept
Al-Ahli
0 : 2
Al-Ittifaq
05 Sept
Al-Hidd
0 : 1
Al-Ahli
28 Aug
Al-Muharraq
1 : 1
Al-Ahli
15 May
Al-Budaiya
2 : 2
Al-Ahli
11 May
Al-Ahli
0 : 1
Al-Hidd
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Sitra

(Away)
12 Sept
Sitra
0 : 0
Al-Hidd
02 Sept
East Riffa
0 : 0
Sitra
27 Aug
Sitra
3 : 0
Malkia
16 May
Sitra
1 : 0
Malkia
10 May
Al-Shabbab
1 : 3
Sitra
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Muharraq 22 17 4 1 45:7 55
2 Al Khalidiyah 22 18 0 4 42:16 54
3 Al Riffa 22 15 4 3 41:17 49
4 Malkia 22 9 6 7 23:16 33
5 Aali Club 22 9 4 9 19:20 31
6 Al Hidd 22 8 6 8 29:23 30
7 Al Ahli 22 7 6 9 28:28 27
8 Sitra 22 7 6 9 22:31 27
9 Al Budaiya 22 6 4 12 24:34 22
10 Al Najma 22 6 4 12 21:35 22
11 Al Shabbab 22 3 5 14 8:34 14
12 Bahrain SC 22 2 1 19 15:56 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)