Sport Picks
Match Events
37'
37'
Exposito E.
42'
42'
Cristo
46'
46'
Sub
Gannan S. In: Yansane S.
Out: Gannan S.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-4. The second leg ended 2-4.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Ahli
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Al Ahli come out ahead of Umm-Salal on wins alone.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahli taking it.
- Al Ahli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Umm-Salal, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 90%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 90%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al Ahli | Umm-Salal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 12 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.71 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.96 | 2.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 27, 2026 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli
1:3
Feb 15, 2026 Emir Cup
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
2:4
Dec 29, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
0:3
Apr 11, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
0:1
Nov 23, 2024 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Al Ahli Compare
Top Goalscorer Exposito E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Yansane S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Umm-Salal Compare
Top Goalscorer Cristo
2 Goals Assists Leader El Sayed A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Al Ahli 67 / 100
Umm-Salal 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Al Ahli Umm-Salal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Al Ahli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Al Ahli scored in 86% of their last 28 games.
Umm-Salal has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Al Ahli stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Al Ahli VS Umm-Salal
1.88 Goals Scored 1
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Al Ahli
(Home) 11 Sept
Al Rayyan
3 : 0 Al Ahli
03 Sept
Al Ahli
1 : 0 Qatar SC
28 Aug
Al Ahli
3 : 3 Lusail
22 Aug
Al-Sadd
3 : 1 Al Ahli
03 Aug
Al Hilal
3 : 3 Al Ahli
Page 1 of 6
03 Sept
Al Ahli
1 : 0 Qatar SC
28 Aug
Al Ahli
3 : 3 Lusail
19 Apr
Al Ahli
3 : 1 Al Hussein
08 Apr
Al Ahli
2 : 1 Al-Duhail
03 Apr
Al Ahli
2 : 2 Al Sailiya
Page 1 of 3
Umm-Salal
(Away) 07 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 5 Al Khor
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2 Umm-Salal
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1 Qatar U23
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0 Umm-Salal
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2 Umm-Salal
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0 Umm-Salal
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
08 Apr
Al Rayyan
3 : 0 Umm-Salal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2 Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Shamal -
TBD -
Qatar SC -
TBD -
Al-Sadd -
TBD -
Al Markhiya 2
Al Mesaimeer 1
Al-Duhail -
TBD -
Al-Waab 2
Lusail 0
Al-Shahaniya -
TBD -
TBD -
Al Arabi (Qatar) -
Al-Gharafa -
TBD -
Al-Kharitiyath 2
Al Bidda 1
Al Ahli -
TBD -
TBD -
Umm-Salal -
Al Rayyan -
TBD -
TBD -
Al Khor -
Al Wakra -
TBD -
Al Sailiya 2
Muaither SC 1
1/8-finals
Shamal 2
Qatar SC 1
Al-Sadd 2
Al Markhiya 1
Al-Duhail 2
Al-Waab 0
Al-Shahaniya 0
Al Arabi (Qatar) 2
Al-Gharafa 2
Al-Kharitiyath 0
Al Ahli 2
Umm-Salal 4
Al Rayyan 2
Al Khor 0
Al Wakra 2
Al Sailiya 0
Quarter-finals
Shamal 4
Al-Sadd 6
Al-Duhail 4
Al Arabi (Qatar) 0
Al-Gharafa 2
Umm-Salal 1
Al Rayyan 0
Al Wakra 3
Semi-finals
Al-Sadd 4
Al-Duhail 1
Al-Gharafa 1
Al Wakra 0
Final
Al-Sadd 1
Al-Gharafa 4
