Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal

Qatar Qatar

Emir Cup Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
Al Ahli Logo

Al Ahli

2 - 4
FT
Umm-Salal Logo

Umm-Salal

Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Exposito E.
42' Event
Cristo
46'
Sub
Gannan S. In: Yansane S.
Out: Gannan S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-4, with Umm-Salal advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Al Ahli
6%
Draws
4%
Umm-Salal
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Al Ahli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ahli come out ahead of Umm-Salal on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahli taking it.
  • Al Ahli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Umm-Salal, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahli Umm-Salal
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.75 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli
1:3
Feb 15, 2026 Emir Cup
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
2:4
Dec 29, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
0:3
Apr 11, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
0:1
Nov 23, 2024 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahli Compare

Top Goalscorer Exposito E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yansane S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Cristo
2 Goals
Assists Leader El Sayed A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahli 85 / 100
Umm-Salal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahli Umm-Salal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AHL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahli scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Umm-Salal has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Umm-Salal's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahli VS Umm-Salal
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahli

(Home)
27 Apr
Umm-Salal
1 : 3
Al Ahli
22 Apr
Al Nassr
5 : 1
Al Ahli
19 Apr
Al Ahli
3 : 1
Al Hussein
08 Apr
Al Ahli
2 : 1
Al-Duhail
03 Apr
Al Ahli
2 : 2
Al Sailiya
Page 1 of 7

Umm-Salal

(Away)
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1
Umm-Salal
27 Apr
Umm-Salal
1 : 3
Al Ahli
08 Apr
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Umm-Salal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2
Umm-Salal
28 Mar
Al Rayyan
4 : 3
Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Shamal-
TBD-
Qatar SC-
TBD-
Al-Sadd-
TBD-
Al Markhiya2
Al Mesaimeer1
Al-Duhail-
TBD-
Al-Waab2
Lusail0
Al-Shahaniya-
TBD-
TBD-
Al Arabi (Qatar)-
Al-Gharafa-
TBD-
Al-Kharitiyath2
Al Bidda1
Al Ahli-
TBD-
TBD-
Umm-Salal-
Al Rayyan-
TBD-
TBD-
Al Khor-
Al Wakra-
TBD-
Al Sailiya2
Muaither SC1
1/8-finals
Shamal2
Qatar SC1
Al-Sadd2
Al Markhiya1
Al-Duhail2
Al-Waab0
Al-Shahaniya0
Al Arabi (Qatar)2
Al-Gharafa2
Al-Kharitiyath0
Al Ahli2
Umm-Salal4
Al Rayyan2
Al Khor0
Al Wakra2
Al Sailiya0
Quarter-finals
Shamal4
Al-Sadd6
Al-Duhail4
Al Arabi (Qatar)0
Al-Gharafa2
Umm-Salal1
Al Rayyan0
Al Wakra3
Semi-finals
Al-Sadd4
Al-Duhail1
Al-Gharafa1
Al Wakra0
Final
Al-Sadd1
Al-Gharafa4