Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Ahly vs Esperance Tunis

Africa Africa

CAF Champions League 2025/2026 Cairo International Stadium, Cairo
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Trezeguet
57'
Sub
Diarra J. In: Yan Sasse
Out: Diarra J.
63'
Tougai M.

AI Match Summary

Esperance Tunis in this CAF Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Al Ahly
15%
Draws
41%
Esperance Tunis
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Ahly

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Esperance Tunis lately — more wins on the board than Al Ahly.
  • Win probability leans Al Ahly's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Esperance Tunis arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Ahly, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Al Ahly Clean Sheet 68%
Esperance Tunis Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ahly Esperance Tunis
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 17
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.57 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.86 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 CAF Champions League
Al Ahly vs Esperance Tunis
2:3
Mar 15, 2026 CAF Champions League
Esperance Tunis vs Al Ahly
1:0
May 25, 2024 CAF Champions League
Al Ahly vs Esperance Tunis
1:0
May 18, 2024 CAF Champions League
Esperance Tunis vs Al Ahly
0:0
May 19, 2023 CAF Champions League
Al Ahly vs Esperance Tunis
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ahly Compare

Top Goalscorer Trezeguet
1 Goals
Assists Leader Otaka M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Esperance Tunis Compare

Top Goalscorer Danho F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jelassi H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ahly 50 / 100
Esperance Tunis 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ahly Esperance Tunis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ahly Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahly scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Solid form: Al Ahly remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Esperance Tunis conceded in 50% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ahly VS Esperance Tunis
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ahly

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Ahly
2 : 0
Abu Qir Semad
09 Sept
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)
1 : 1
Al Ahly
03 Sept
Al Ahly
1 : 0
Smouha
28 Aug
ZED FC
0 : 2
Al Ahly
23 Aug
Al Ahly
3 : 2
Enppi
Page 1 of 6

Esperance Tunis

(Away)
04 Oct
Esperance Tunis
3 : 1
Military Union
13 Sept
Hammam-Lif
0 : 1
Esperance Tunis
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1
AS Marsa
30 Aug
Jeunesse Sportive
3 : 1
Esperance Tunis
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2
Etoile Sahel
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Esperance Tunis 4
Al Ahly 2
Mamelodi Sundowns 3
Stade Malien 2
FAR Rabat 3
Pyramids 2
Berkane 2
Al-Hilal Omdurman 1
Semi-finals
Esperance Tunis 0
Mamelodi Sundowns 2
FAR Rabat 2
Berkane 1
Final
Mamelodi Sundowns 2
FAR Rabat 1