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Al Ain vs Al Nasr

United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates

UAE League 2025/2026 Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Al Ain
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Ghaedi M.
32'
Rodrigues R.
40'
Faiz I.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this UAE League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Al Ain
20%
Draws
33%
Al Nasr
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Ain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Ain lately — more wins on the board than Al Nasr.
  • Al Ain are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Al Ain Clean Sheet 68%
Al Nasr Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ain Al Nasr
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 23 11
Draws 5 11
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 2.21 1.62
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 UAE League
Al Ain vs Al Nasr
2:1
Feb 14, 2026 UAE League
Al Ain vs Al Nasr
1:1
Dec 28, 2025 UAE League
Al Nasr vs Al Ain
2:2
Dec 13, 2025 League Cup
Al Ain vs Al Nasr
0:2
Dec 5, 2025 League Cup
Al Nasr vs Al Ain
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ain Compare

Top Goalscorer Palacios M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Al Nasr Compare

Top Goalscorer Ghaedi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ain 77 / 100
Al Nasr 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ain Al Nasr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ain Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ain's goal record stands at 88% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Al Nasr has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Al Ain has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Ain VS Al Nasr
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ain

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Wasl
3 : 2
Al Ain
15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0
Al Nassr
10 Sept
Al Ain
2 : 2
Al Wasl
04 Sept
Ittihad Kalba
0 : 2
Al Ain
29 Aug
Al Ain
2 : 1
Al Nasr
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Al Nasr

(Away)
20 Sept
Al Nasr
3 : 1
United FC
10 Sept
Al Jazira
1 : 1
Al Nasr
06 Sept
Al Nasr
1 : 2
Ajman
29 Aug
Al Ain
2 : 1
Al Nasr
21 Aug
Al Nasr
1 : 0
Al Wahda
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ain 26 21 5 0 62:18 68
2 Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai 26 17 7 2 60:18 58
3 Al Wasl 26 14 6 6 39:29 48
4 Al Jazira 26 13 5 8 46:30 44
5 Al Wahda 26 10 10 6 38:26 40
6 Al Nasr 26 9 11 6 36:34 38
7 Ajman 26 9 5 12 27:34 32
8 Al Sharjah 26 8 5 13 35:47 29
9 Khorfakkan 26 6 9 11 35:45 27
10 Bani Yas 26 7 6 13 29:43 27
11 Ittihad Kalba 26 5 9 12 29:45 24
12 Al Dhafra 26 6 4 16 28:52 22
13 Al Bataeh 26 4 9 13 24:37 21
14 Dibba Al Fujairah 26 5 5 16 25:55 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 (Main)