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Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley vs Salam Zgharta

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Arnaot M.
Own Goal
61' Event
Al Massri M.
70'
Naboulsi H.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2022/2023 game between Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley and Salam Zgharta finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley
20%
Draws
38%
Salam Zgharta
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley come out ahead of Salam Zgharta on wins alone.
  • Model gives Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley Clean Sheet 20%
Salam Zgharta Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley Salam Zgharta
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 4
Draws 5 6
Losses 16 20
Goals Scored 1.13 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2023 Premier League
Salam Zgharta vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley
0:0
Jan 8, 2023 Premier League
Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley vs Salam Zgharta
2:1
Oct 22, 2022 Premier League
Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley vs Salam Zgharta
2:0
Oct 31, 2020 Premier League
Salam Zgharta vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley
0:1
Nov 8, 2019 Premier League
Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley vs Salam Zgharta
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Massri M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Salam Zgharta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley 42 / 100
Salam Zgharta 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley Salam Zgharta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Salam Zgharta has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley VS Salam Zgharta
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Ansar1183028:727
2Al Sahel1174017:525
3Al Ahed1173120:824
4Nejmeh SC1172218:723
5Bourj1172217:1123
6Al Ghazieh1133512:1612
7Safa112458:1510
8Tadamon1124511:1510
9Al Akhaa Al Ahli Aley1121810:257
10Salam Zgharta111467:157
11Al Hikma112189:157
12Tripoli SC110564:225