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Al Ansar vs Bourj

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League Beirut Municipal Stadium, Beirut
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Khalfallah H.
Assist: Hebous M.
41' Event
Hebous M.
Assist: Tneich A.
68' Event
Hebous M.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al Ansar and Bourj finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ansar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Al Ansar
20%
Draws
28%
Bourj
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Ansar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Ansar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Al Ansar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Ansar have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Al Ansar Clean Sheet 68%
Bourj Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ansar Bourj
Matches Played 36 32
Wins 26 17
Draws 5 4
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 2.28 1.22
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 30, 2025 Premier League
Al Ansar vs Bourj
4:1
Feb 13, 2025 Premier League
Al Ansar vs Bourj
1:0
Jul 5, 2024 Lebanese Cup
Al Ansar vs Bourj
1:0
Jun 16, 2024 Premier League
Al Ansar vs Bourj
3:0
Apr 27, 2024 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ansar
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ansar Compare

Top Goalscorer Khalfallah H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hebous M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Bourj Compare

Top Goalscorer Toure M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ansar 95 / 100
Bourj 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ansar Bourj

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ansar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ansar scored in 92% of their last 36 games.

Al Ansar went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Bourj let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Al Ansar VS -
2 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ansar

(Home)
04 Sept
Al Ansar
2 : 0
Al Nahda Ber Al Yaas
02 Aug
Nejmeh SC
1 : 2
Al Ansar
28 Jul
Jwayya SC
1 : 2
Al Ansar
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Al Ansar
1 : 1
Nejmeh SC
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Bourj

(Away)
30 Dec
Al Ansar
4 : 1
Bourj
25 Dec
Bourj
1 : 4
Al Ahed
19 Dec
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
12 Dec
Bourj
2 : 1
Racing
06 Dec
Al Sahel
1 : 0
Bourj
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)