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Stadium Background

Al Duhail vs Al Gharafa

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Shanan M.
20'
Al Oui A.
22'
Surag A.

AI Match Summary

The QSL 2025/2026 game between Al Duhail and Al Gharafa finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Duhail.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Al Duhail
35%
Draws
20%
Al Gharafa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Duhail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Duhail come out ahead of Al Gharafa on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Al Duhail's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular QSL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al Duhail here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Al Duhail Clean Sheet 19%
Al Gharafa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Duhail Al Gharafa
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.48 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.21 2.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 QSL
Al Duhail vs Al Gharafa
3:2
Nov 14, 2025 QSL Cup
Al Duhail vs Al Gharafa
1:0
Oct 30, 2025 QSL
Al Gharafa vs Al Duhail
3:1
Apr 23, 2025 Qatar Cup
Al Duhail vs Al Gharafa
1:0
Mar 29, 2025 QSL
Al Gharafa vs Al Duhail
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Duhail Compare

Top Goalscorer Shanan M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Edmilson Junior
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Al Gharafa Compare

Top Goalscorer Aladin H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sassi F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Duhail 76 / 100
Al Gharafa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Duhail Al Gharafa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Duhail Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Duhail scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Al Gharafa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

Al Duhail went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Al Duhail VS Al Gharafa
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Duhail

(Home)
28 Sept
Al Shahaniya
1 : 3
Al Duhail
21 Sept
Al Duhail
2 : 0
Al Arabi (Qatar)
12 Sept
Al Duhail
1 : 1
Al Shahaniya
05 Sept
Al Rayyan
1 : 1
Al Duhail
29 Aug
Al Duhail
1 : 1
Al Arabi (Qatar)
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Al Gharafa

(Away)
01 Oct
Al Gharafa
4 : 2
Al Mesaimeer
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al Gharafa
11 Sept
Al Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al Sadd
4 : 1
Al Gharafa
01 Sept
Al Sadd
2 : 1
Al Gharafa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)