Sport Picks
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
Qatar
QSL 2025/2026 Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha 
Match Events
47'
47'
Roberto Firmino
55'
55'
Henrique G.
58'
58'
Sub
Diaz F. In: Gunnarsson A.
Out: Diaz F.
AI Match Summary
Al-Sadd in this QSL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al-Sadd.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
7%
15%
78%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al-Sadd
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
78%
/ Very High Confidence
- Al-Gharafa haven't matched Al-Sadd's recent run of results.
- Model gives Al-Sadd a 78% chance of winning this.
- Regular QSL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Sadd Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Al-Sadd |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 33 |
| Wins | 11 | 21 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 16 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.35 | 2.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.94 | 1.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 QSL
Al-Sadd vs Al-Gharafa
4:1
Sep 1, 2026 Qatar Cup
Al-Sadd vs Al-Gharafa
2:1
May 9, 2026 Emir Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
4:1
Jan 31, 2026 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
1:3
Sep 1, 2025 QSL Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
3:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Al-Gharafa Compare
Top Goalscorer Al Oui A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Al-Sadd Compare
Top Goalscorer Roberto Firmino
1 Goals Assists Leader Henrique G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Al-Gharafa 10 / 100
Al-Sadd 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Al-Gharafa Al-Sadd
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Al-Sadd Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Al-Sadd conceded in 91% of 33 recent games.
Games between these two average 4.60 goals.
Al-Gharafa scored in 74% of their last 31 games.
Al-Gharafa went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Al-Gharafa VS Al-Sadd
1.75 Goals Scored 2.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Al-Gharafa
(Home) 15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1 Al-Gharafa
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0 Lusail
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1 Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1 Al-Gharafa
27 Aug
Al-Gharafa
1 : 3 Shamal
Page 1 of 7
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0 Lusail
27 Aug
Al-Gharafa
1 : 3 Shamal
21 Aug
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Al-Shahaniya
09 May
Al-Gharafa
4 : 1 Al-Sadd
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1 Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 3
Al-Sadd
(Away) 14 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 0 Al-Sadd
10 Sept
Al Sailiya
3 : 6 Al-Sadd
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1 Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1 Al-Gharafa
28 Aug
Qatar SC
2 : 6 Al-Sadd
Page 1 of 7
14 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 0 Al-Sadd
10 Sept
Al Sailiya
3 : 6 Al-Sadd
28 Aug
Qatar SC
2 : 6 Al-Sadd
06 Aug
Aris Limassol
1 : 1 Al-Sadd
30 Jul
Trabzonspor
0 : 1 Al-Sadd
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Sadd | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 56:30 | 45 |
| 2 | Shamal | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 39:28 | 40 |
| 3 | Al Rayyan | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 46:32 | 38 |
| 4 | Al-Gharafa | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36:36 | 36 |
| 5 | Al-Duhail | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 40:27 | 33 |
| 6 | Al Arabi (Qatar) | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 37:41 | 32 |
| 7 | Al Wakra | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 36:34 | 30 |
| 8 | Qatar SC | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 32:36 | 29 |
| 9 | Al Ahli | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 34:43 | 26 |
| 10 | Al Sailiya | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 25:38 | 22 |
| 11 | Al-Shahaniya | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22:39 | 21 |
| 12 | Umm-Salal | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 37:56 | 20 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)
