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Al Gharraf vs Al Minaa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

58'
Bindjeme S.
58'
Bindjeme S.
61' Event
Samia Y.
Assist: Azzawi A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Gharraf and Al Minaa finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Minaa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Al Gharraf
30%
Draws
47%
Al Minaa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Minaa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Al Gharraf and Al Minaa have been evenly matched lately, statistically speaking.
  • Al Gharraf are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Al Minaa have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 20%
Al Minaa Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Gharraf Al Minaa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Al Gharraf
3:0
Apr 28, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Al Minaa
0:1
Feb 13, 2026 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Al Gharraf
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Gharraf Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Al Minaa Compare

Top Goalscorer Samia Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Gharraf 42 / 100
Al Minaa 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Gharraf Al Minaa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Minaa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Al Minaa has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Al Gharraf scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Gharraf VS Al Minaa
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Gharraf

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Al Gharraf
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
03 Sept
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Al Gharraf
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 6

Al Minaa

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Duhok
13 Sept
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Al Minaa
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)