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Al Gharraf vs Al Shorta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Barco C.
(Penalty)
72' Event
Hadhri A.
Assist: Faisal A.
84' Event
Basim A.
Assist: Zero A.

AI Match Summary

Al Shorta in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Shorta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Al Gharraf
35%
Draws
36%
Al Shorta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Shorta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Shorta lately — more wins on the board than Al Gharraf.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Al Shorta taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al Shorta here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 20%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Gharraf Al Shorta
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 16
Draws 11 10
Losses 13 3
Goals Scored 0.87 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.66
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Al Shorta
1:2
May 10, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Al Gharraf
1:0
Feb 4, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Al Shorta
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Gharraf Compare

Top Goalscorer Hadhri A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Al Shorta Compare

Top Goalscorer Basim A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Gharraf 24 / 100
Al Shorta 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Gharraf Al Shorta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Shorta Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Al Gharraf stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Al Gharraf found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Al Shorta has conceded goals in 48% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Gharraf VS Al Shorta
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Gharraf

(Home)
08 Nov
Erbil
1 : 1
Al Gharraf
31 Oct
Al Karkh
1 : 2
Al Gharraf
22 Oct
Al Gharraf
0 : 0
Al Naft
16 Oct
Karbala
1 : 2
Al Gharraf
09 Oct
Al Gharraf
0 : 0
Al Golan
Page 1 of 6

Al Shorta

(Away)
08 Nov
Al Shorta
2 : 1
Al Naft
03 Nov
Al Hussein
0 : 3
Al Shorta
31 Oct
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Newroz
27 Oct
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Al Hussein
23 Oct
Al Zawraa
0 : 2
Al Shorta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)