Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Gharraf vs Al Talaba

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Dakhel H.
28' Event
Msuva S.
45'
Abdullah A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Gharraf and Al Talaba finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Talaba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Al Gharraf
20%
Draws
38%
Al Talaba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Gharraf

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Talaba come out ahead of Al Gharraf on wins alone.
  • Al Gharraf are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 68%
Al Talaba Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Gharraf Al Talaba
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 14
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 0.88 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Al Talaba
1:3
Jan 31, 2026 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Al Gharraf
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Gharraf Compare

Top Goalscorer Dakhel H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Al Talaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Msuva S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ndasi N. D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Gharraf 51 / 100
Al Talaba 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Gharraf Al Talaba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Al Talaba has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Al Gharraf remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Al Gharraf scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Gharraf VS Al Talaba
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Gharraf

(Home)
02 Jun
Al Gharraf
0 : 2
Naft Missan
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Al Kahraba
2 : 2
Al Gharraf
15 May
Al Gharraf
2 : 2
Al Karkh
10 May
Al Shorta
1 : 0
Al Gharraf
Page 1 of 6

Al Talaba

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Talaba
1 : 1
Al Karkh
28 May
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Al Talaba
19 May
Al Talaba
1 : 1
Al-Karma
15 May
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
2 : 1
Al Talaba
11 May
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Talaba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)