Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Gharraf vs Al Talaba

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Dakhel H.
28' Event
Msuva S.
45'
Abdullah A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Gharraf and Al Talaba finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Talaba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Al Gharraf
35%
Draws
56%
Al Talaba
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Talaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Talaba come out ahead of Al Gharraf on wins alone.
  • Al Talaba are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 20%
Al Talaba Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Gharraf Al Talaba
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 6 9
Draws 8 11
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 0.93 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Al Talaba
1:3
Jan 31, 2026 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Al Gharraf
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Gharraf Compare

Top Goalscorer Dakhel H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Al Talaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Msuva S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ndasi N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Gharraf 28 / 100
Al Talaba 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Gharraf Al Talaba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Talaba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Al Talaba has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Al Gharraf found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Al Gharraf went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Gharraf VS Al Talaba
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Gharraf

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Al Gharraf
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
03 Sept
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Al Gharraf
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 6

Al Talaba

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Talaba
2 : 2
Al Golan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
05 Sept
Zakho
0 : 0
Al Talaba
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)