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Al Gharraf vs Newroz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Abdulkadhim S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Gharraf and Newroz finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Gharraf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Al Gharraf
30%
Draws
64%
Newroz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Newroz come out ahead of Al Gharraf on wins alone.
  • Model gives Newroz a 64% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Newroz have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 15%
Newroz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Gharraf Newroz
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 15
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.43 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Newroz
1:0
Mar 25, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Gharraf
2:1
Jan 10, 2026 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Newroz
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Gharraf 10 / 100
Newroz 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Gharraf Newroz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Al Gharraf found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Newroz conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Al Gharraf has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Gharraf VS Newroz
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Gharraf

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Al Gharraf
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
03 Sept
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Al Gharraf
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 6

Newroz

(Away)
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
14 Sept
Al Golan
0 : 2
Newroz
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
30 Aug
Newroz
0 : 0
Duhok
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 9 5 3 1 15:6 18
3 Erbil 9 5 3 1 13:4 18
4 Al Shorta 9 4 4 1 9:4 16
5 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Duhok 9 2 6 1 14:11 12
8 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 9 2 5 2 14:12 11
9 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
10 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
11 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
12 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Talaba 9 1 5 3 9:14 8
15 Naft Missan 9 1 5 3 7:12 8
16 Al Mosul 9 2 2 5 9:15 8
17 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
18 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)