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Al Ghazieh vs Bourj - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Atriss Y.
58' Event
Sani I.
71' Event
Diaw A.

AI Match Summary

Bourj in this Premier League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bourj.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Al Ghazieh
15%
Draws
57%
Bourj
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bourj

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bourj lately — more wins on the board than Al Ghazieh.
  • Al Ghazieh are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Bourj here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Al Ghazieh Clean Sheet 68%
Bourj Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ghazieh Bourj
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 15
Draws 8 4
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 0.9 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:0
May 27, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
2:1
Apr 24, 2025 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Bourj
1:4
Mar 15, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:1
Aug 12, 2023 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ghazieh Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaw A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Bourj Compare

Top Goalscorer Atriss Y.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sani I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ghazieh 59 / 100
Bourj 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ghazieh Bourj

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ghazieh Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bourj's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Bourj's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Al Ghazieh's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ghazieh VS Bourj
1.2 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
80% Over 1.5 63%
80% Over 2.5 63%
40% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ghazieh

(Home)
05 Jul
Al Ghazieh
1 : 4
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
30 Jun
Al Ghazieh
0 : 3
Al Sahel
26 Jun
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Ghazieh
19 Jun
Al Ghazieh
1 : 2
Shabab Baalbeck
14 Jun
Racing
0 : 4
Al Ghazieh
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Bourj

(Away)
30 Dec
Al Ansar
4 : 1
Bourj
25 Dec
Bourj
1 : 4
Al Ahed
19 Dec
Bourj
1 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
12 Dec
Bourj
2 : 1
Racing
06 Dec
Al Sahel
1 : 0
Bourj
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