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Al Ghazieh vs Bourj

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Atriss Y.
58' Event
Sani I.
71' Event
Diaw A.

AI Match Summary

Bourj in this Premier League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bourj.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Al Ghazieh
28%
Draws
22%
Bourj
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Al Ghazieh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bourj lately — more wins on the board than Al Ghazieh.
  • Al Ghazieh are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Bourj here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Al Ghazieh Clean Sheet 68%
Bourj Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ghazieh Bourj
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 15
Draws 8 4
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 1.2 1.38
Goals Conceded 2 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:0
May 27, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
2:1
Apr 24, 2025 Premier League
Al Ghazieh vs Bourj
1:4
Mar 15, 2025 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
1:1
Aug 12, 2023 Premier League
Bourj vs Al Ghazieh
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ghazieh Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaw A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Bourj Compare

Top Goalscorer Atriss Y.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sani I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ghazieh 59 / 100
Bourj 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ghazieh Bourj

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bourj's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Bourj's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Al Ghazieh's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al Ghazieh VS Bourj
1.2 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
80% Over 1.5 63%
80% Over 2.5 63%
40% Over 3.5 13%