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Al Karkh vs Erbil - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Bayesh I.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Karkh and Erbil finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Al Karkh
35%
Draws
40%
Erbil
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Erbil carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Erbil are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Al Karkh Clean Sheet 12%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Karkh Erbil
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 16
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.24 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 25, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Erbil
0:1
May 2, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Karkh
1:0
Jan 27, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Erbil
1:1
Jun 29, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Karkh
1:3
Jan 19, 2025 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Erbil
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Karkh Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Bayesh I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Karkh 11 / 100
Erbil 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Karkh Erbil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Karkh's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Al Karkh stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Erbil let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Karkh VS Erbil
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Karkh

(Home)
07 Nov
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0 : 1
Al Karkh
31 Oct
Al Karkh
1 : 2
Al Gharraf
23 Oct
Al Karkh
1 : 1
Al Mosul
18 Oct
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Al Karkh
10 Oct
Al Karma
3 : 2
Al Karkh
Page 1 of 6

Erbil

(Away)
08 Nov
Erbil
1 : 1
Al Gharraf
04 Nov
Erbil
6 : 0
Kazma SC
30 Oct
Erbil
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
28 Oct
Erbil
3 : 0
Al Ettifaq FC
22 Oct
Zakho
2 : 1
Erbil
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)