Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Karkh vs Erbil

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Bayesh I.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Karkh and Erbil finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Al Karkh
20%
Draws
47%
Erbil
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Erbil carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Erbil are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Al Karkh Clean Sheet 17%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Karkh Erbil
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 18
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 4
Goals Scored 1.29 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.51 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 25, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Erbil
0:1
May 2, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Karkh
1:0
Jan 27, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Erbil
1:1
Jun 29, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Karkh
1:3
Jan 19, 2025 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Erbil
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Karkh Compare

Avg xG / game 0.39
Avg xA / game 0.26

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Bayesh I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Karkh 15 / 100
Erbil 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Karkh Erbil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Al Karkh stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Al Karkh's goal record stands at 58% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Erbil let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Karkh VS Erbil
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Karkh

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Duhok
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
29 Aug
Al Karkh
2 : 2
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 7

Erbil

(Away)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)