Sport Picks
Club Atletico Morelia vs Leones Negros - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Morelos, Morelia 
AI Match Summary
The first leg ended 2-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Club Atletico Morelia at 1.5 goals for, 1.32 against; Leones Negros at 1.7 for, 1.48 against. Past meetings favor Leones Negros slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 20, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.44 - 1.75) back Club Atletico Morelia to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Form's been kind to Club Atletico Morelia lately — more wins on the board than Leones Negros.
- 42% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Club Atletico Morelia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Club Atletico Morelia, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Club Atletico Morelia | Leones Negros |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 27 |
| Wins | 13 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Leones Negros's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 27 matches.
Club Atletico Morelia found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Club Atletico Morelia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
