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Al-Karma vs Al Naft

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Amadi S.
Assist: Ramadan W.
24' Event
Faisal A.
Assist: Hamdi M.
60' Event
Ramadan W.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al-Karma and Al Naft finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al-Karma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Al-Karma
35%
Draws
21%
Al Naft
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al-Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al-Karma come out ahead of Al Naft on wins alone.
  • Al-Karma are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Al-Karma Clean Sheet 68%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Karma Al Naft
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 12 12
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 1.57 0.89
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Al Naft
3:0
May 5, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al-Karma
0:0
Sep 20, 2025 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Al Naft
2:1
Apr 2, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al-Karma
0:0
Sep 26, 2024 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Al Naft
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Amadi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Faisal A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al Naft Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Karma 86 / 100
Al Naft 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Karma Al Naft

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Karma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Al-Karma remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Al-Karma found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Al Naft conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Al-Karma VS Al Naft
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Karma

(Home)
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
26 Aug
Al Kahraba
1 : 1
Al-Karma
21 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 1
Al Shorta
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Al Naft

(Away)
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
26 Aug
Al Naft
1 : 1
Duhok
20 Aug
Naft Missan
0 : 0
Al Naft
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Zawraa 7 4 3 0 13:3 15
2 Al-Karma 6 4 2 0 11:4 14
3 Erbil 6 4 2 0 8:1 14
4 Al Shorta 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
5 Al Naft 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
6 Al Golan 6 2 3 1 6:5 9
7 Al Talaba 6 2 3 1 7:10 9
8 Newroz 6 2 2 2 11:4 8
9 Duhok 6 1 5 0 8:7 8
10 Al Mosul 6 2 2 2 8:9 8
11 Al Minaa 6 2 2 2 6:7 8
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 7 1 4 2 10:11 7
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 6 1 3 2 4:5 6
14 Zakho 6 1 3 2 5:9 6
15 Diyala 6 1 2 3 9:12 5
16 Al Gharraf 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
17 Karbala 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
18 Al Kahraba 6 0 4 2 4:7 4
19 Naft Missan 6 0 4 2 2:8 4
20 Al Karkh 6 0 1 5 4:10 1
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)