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Al Karma vs Al Naft - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Amadi S.
Assist: Ramadan W.
24' Event
Faisal A.
Assist: Hamdi M.
60' Event
Ramadan W.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Karma and Al Naft finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Karma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Al Karma
20%
Draws
40%
Al Naft
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Karma come out ahead of Al Naft on wins alone.
  • Al Karma are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Al Karma Clean Sheet 20%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Karma Al Naft
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 12 12
Losses 3 6
Goals Scored 1.57 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Stars League
Al Karma vs Al Naft
3:0
May 5, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Karma
0:0
Sep 20, 2025 Stars League
Al Karma vs Al Naft
2:1
Apr 2, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Karma
0:0
Sep 26, 2024 Stars League
Al Karma vs Al Naft
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Amadi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Faisal A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Al Naft Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Karma 42 / 100
Al Naft 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Karma Al Naft

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Karma found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Al Karma remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Al Naft let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Karma VS Al Naft
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Karma

(Home)
06 Nov
Al Karma
4 : 1
Naft Missan
30 Oct
Al Karma
1 : 0
Duhok
24 Oct
Al Minaa
2 : 1
Al Karma
17 Oct
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0 : 0
Al Karma
10 Oct
Al Karma
3 : 2
Al Karkh
Page 1 of 6

Al Naft

(Away)
08 Nov
Al Shorta
2 : 1
Al Naft
29 Oct
Al Naft
1 : 0
Al Kahraba
22 Oct
Al Gharraf
0 : 0
Al Naft
17 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Zakho
09 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Diyala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)