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Al-Karma vs Karbala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Amadi S.
90' Event
Ogaili M.
Assist: Ramadan W.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al-Karma and Karbala finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al-Karma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
Al-Karma
15%
Draws
14%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al-Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Al-Karma carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Al-Karma are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al-Karma here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Al-Karma Clean Sheet 68%
Karbala Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Karma Karbala
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 16 3
Draws 12 6
Losses 4 20
Goals Scored 1.56 0.79
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Karbala
2:0
Jun 13, 2025 Stars League
Karbala vs Al-Karma
0:2
Jan 2, 2025 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Karbala
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Amadi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ogaili M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Karma 95 / 100
Karbala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Karma Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Karma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Karbala conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Al-Karma has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Karbala registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Al-Karma scored in 56% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al-Karma VS Karbala
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Karma

(Home)
19 Sept
Al-Karma
1 : 0
Zakho
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
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Karbala

(Away)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
07 Sept
Karbala
2 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)