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Al-Khmes vs Al Ahly Tripoli

Libya Libya

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al-Khmes and Al Ahly Tripoli finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahly Tripoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Al-Khmes
22%
Draws
60%
Al Ahly Tripoli
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Al Ahly Tripoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ahly Tripoli come out ahead of Al-Khmes on wins alone.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahly Tripoli taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Al Ahly Tripoli have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Al-Khmes Clean Sheet 20%
Al Ahly Tripoli Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Khmes Al Ahly Tripoli
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 24
Draws 5 6
Losses 18 2
Goals Scored 0.75 3
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Al-Khmes vs Al Ahly Tripoli
1:3
Feb 2, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al-Khmes
5:2
Apr 6, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al-Khmes
4:1
Jan 23, 2025 Premier League
Al-Khmes vs Al Ahly Tripoli
0:3
Apr 30, 2024 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al-Khmes
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Khmes 20 / 100
Al Ahly Tripoli 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Khmes Al Ahly Tripoli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Al-Khmes scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Al-Khmes went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Al Ahly Tripoli conceded in 38% of 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Khmes VS Al Ahly Tripoli
0.75 Goals Scored 3
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Ahly Tripoli18152147:947
2Asswehly18134135:943
3Al Madina1884623:2228
4Al Watan1865714:1823
5Assabah1864812:1822
6Al Malaab El Libby1855815:2120
7Al-Khmes1855819:3120
8Al Qadisiyah18621011:2419
9Al Dahra18351020:2714
10Abu Salim18341113:3013
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Ittihad16133035:942
2Olympic Azzaweya1694325:1131
3Al Ittihad Misurata1676321:1127
4Al-Majd1665514:1323
5Al Shomooa1664624:1922
6Shabab Al-Ghar1646617:2718
7Al Tirsana1637615:2316
8Ittihad Gharyan16241010:2510
9Abi Al Ashar1613129:326
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Military Union16105126:935
2Al Hilal Benghazi16104220:1134
3Al Ahly Benghazi1696123:633
4Al Taawun1675419:1426
5Darnes1655616:1620
6Al Sadaqa1654716:1719
7Al-Anwar1618712:2311
8Al Borouq1624107:2110
9Al-Suqoor16131213:356
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Nasr14112128:735
2Al Akhdar1484216:928
3Al-Afreeki1472529:1823
4Al Tahaddi1456321:1421
5Khaleej Sirte1454525:2219
6Wefaq Ajdabiya1453613:1718
7Al Murooj SC1441916:2413
8Al-Andalus1400141:380