Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al-Mabarrah vs Safa

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
El Mokdad H.
Assist: Moni
59'
Soumare B.
59'
Soumare B.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al-Mabarrah and Safa finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al-Mabarrah.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Al-Mabarrah
20%
Draws
73%
Safa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Safa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Safa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Safa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Safa have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Al-Mabarrah Clean Sheet 23%
Safa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Mabarrah Safa
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 16
Draws 9 5
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.8 1.55
Goals Conceded 2 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 Premier League
Safa vs Al-Mabarrah
4:0
Dec 25, 2025 Premier League
Al-Mabarrah vs Safa
1:0
Jan 31, 2014 Premier League
Safa vs Al-Mabarrah
3:1
Dec 8, 2013 Premier League
Al-Mabarrah vs Safa
2:6
Apr 6, 2013 Lebanese Cup
Safa vs Al-Mabarrah
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Mabarrah Compare

Top Goalscorer El Mokdad H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Safa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Mabarrah 10 / 100
Safa 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Mabarrah Safa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Safa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Al-Mabarrah scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Safa conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Al-Mabarrah remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al-Mabarrah VS Safa
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Mabarrah

(Home)
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
29 Jun
Al-Mabarrah
0 : 7
Al Ansar
25 Jun
Al Hikma
4 : 2
Al-Mabarrah
21 Jun
Nejmeh SC
5 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
16 Jun
Tadamon
1 : 1
Al-Mabarrah
Page 1 of 6

Safa

(Away)
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
28 Jun
Jwayya SC
1 : 1
Safa
24 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 1
Safa
20 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 4
Safa
12 Jun
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Safa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)