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Al Madina vs Al Ahly Tripoli

Libya Libya

Premier League Solyman AL Darrat
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Al Madina and Al Ahly Tripoli finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahly Tripoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Al Madina
22%
Draws
60%
Al Ahly Tripoli
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Al Ahly Tripoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ahly Tripoli come out ahead of Al Madina on wins alone.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahly Tripoli taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Al Madina Clean Sheet 12%
Al Ahly Tripoli Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Madina Al Ahly Tripoli
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 11 27
Draws 5 8
Losses 14 2
Goals Scored 1.5 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Premier League
Al Madina vs Al Ahly Tripoli
0:1
Feb 25, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Madina
4:0
Dec 25, 2025 Premier League
Al Madina vs Al Ahly Tripoli
1:1
Jun 22, 2025 Premier League
Al Madina vs Al Ahly Tripoli
0:0
May 4, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Madina
3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Madina 19 / 100
Al Ahly Tripoli 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Madina Al Ahly Tripoli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Madina's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Al Ahly Tripoli conceded in 41% of 37 recent games.

Recent resilience: Al Madina stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Madina VS Al Ahly Tripoli
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%