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Al Madina vs Al Ahly Tripoli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Libya Libya

Premier League 2025/2026 Solyman AL Darrat, Tripoli
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Al Madina and Al Ahly Tripoli finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahly Tripoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Al Madina
20%
Draws
61%
Al Ahly Tripoli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Ahly Tripoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ahly Tripoli come out ahead of Al Madina on wins alone.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahly Tripoli taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Al Madina Clean Sheet 12%
Al Ahly Tripoli Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Madina Al Ahly Tripoli
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 21
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 2
Goals Scored 1.21 2.18
Goals Conceded 1.32 0.46
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Premier League
Al Madina vs Al Ahly Tripoli
0:1
Feb 25, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Madina
4:0
Dec 25, 2025 Premier League
Al Madina vs Al Ahly Tripoli
1:1
Jun 22, 2025 Premier League
Al Madina vs Al Ahly Tripoli
0:0
May 4, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Madina
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Madina 10 / 100
Al Ahly Tripoli 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Madina Al Ahly Tripoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ahly Tripoli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Madina's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Al Ahly Tripoli conceded in 36% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Al Madina stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Madina VS Al Ahly Tripoli
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Madina

(Home)
24 May
Al Madina
1 : 1
Al Ittihad Misurata
20 May
Al Madina
0 : 3
Asswehly
14 May
Al Madina
0 : 1
Al Ahly Tripoli
10 May
Al Ittihad
2 : 1
Al Madina
06 May
Al Madina
3 : 2
Olympic Azzaweya
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Al Ahly Tripoli

(Away)
12 Sept
Al Ahly Tripoli
4 : 0
KMKM
05 Sept
KMKM
0 : 3
Al Ahly Tripoli
24 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
0 : 0
Asswehly
20 May
Al Ahly Tripoli
2 : 1
Olympic Azzaweya
14 May
Al Madina
0 : 1
Al Ahly Tripoli
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