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Al Mosul vs Al Naft - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

65'
Kadhim H.
65'
Kadhim H.
90' Event
Adnan M.
Assist: Kareem W.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Mosul and Al Naft finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Naft.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Al Mosul
20%
Draws
73%
Al Naft
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Al Naft carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Al Naft are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 20%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Mosul Al Naft
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 11
Draws 13 12
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.3 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Al Naft
0:1
Apr 22, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Al Naft
0:0
Nov 21, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Mosul
1:2
Mar 14, 2011 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Mosul
1:1
Nov 27, 2010 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Al Naft
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Mosul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Al Naft Compare

Top Goalscorer Adnan M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Mosul 24 / 100
Al Naft 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Mosul Al Naft

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Mosul scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Defensive concern: Al Naft conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Al Mosul has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Mosul VS Al Naft
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Mosul

(Home)
07 Oct
Al Mosul
0 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
13 Sept
Zakho
2 : 1
Al Mosul
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
03 Sept
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Zawraa
Page 1 of 6

Al Naft

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
09 Sept
Al Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 9 5 3 1 15:6 18
3 Erbil 9 5 3 1 13:4 18
4 Al Shorta 9 4 4 1 9:4 16
5 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Duhok 9 2 6 1 14:11 12
8 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 9 2 5 2 14:12 11
9 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
10 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
11 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
12 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Talaba 9 1 5 3 9:14 8
15 Naft Missan 9 1 5 3 7:12 8
16 Al Mosul 9 2 2 5 9:15 8
17 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
18 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)