Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Mosul vs Baghdad

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Jaulu H.
89' Event
Ibrahim D.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Mosul and Baghdad finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Al Mosul
17%
Draws
13%
Baghdad
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Al Mosul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Al Mosul carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Al Mosul are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 68%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Mosul Baghdad
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 5
Draws 13 7
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Baghdad
1:1
Sep 21, 2025 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Mosul
0:3
Jun 15, 2010 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Baghdad
2:1
Feb 27, 2010 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Mosul
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Mosul Compare

Top Goalscorer Ibrahim D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Baghdad Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaulu H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Mosul 77 / 100
Baghdad 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Mosul Baghdad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baghdad has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Al Mosul found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Al Mosul went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Mosul VS Baghdad
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Mosul

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al-Qassim
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1
Al Mosul
20 May
Al Minaa
1 : 0
Al Mosul
15 May
Al Mosul
3 : 3
Duhok
11 May
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Talaba
Page 1 of 6

Baghdad

(Away)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)