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Al Mosul vs Diyala Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Alsanati A.
Assist: Luqman G.
39' Event
Luqman G.
Assist: Omar A. S.
90' Event
Khudair M.

AI Match Summary

Al Mosul in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Mosul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Al Mosul
30%
Draws
58%
Diyala
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Diyala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Mosul average 1.4 goals a game right now, well clear of Diyala's 1.07.
  • Diyala are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 16%
Diyala Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Mosul Diyala
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 13 7
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.4 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Diyala
2:1
Apr 26, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Mosul
1:4
Oct 5, 2025 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Diyala
0:3
May 6, 2011 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Mosul
0:0
Jan 30, 2011 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Diyala
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Mosul Compare

Top Goalscorer Alsanati A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Luqman G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Khudair M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Mosul 23 / 100
Diyala 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Mosul Diyala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Diyala Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Mosul scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Diyala let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Al Mosul went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Mosul VS Diyala
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Mosul

(Home)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
13 Sept
Zakho
2 : 1
Al Mosul
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
03 Sept
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Zawraa
30 Aug
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Mosul
Page 1 of 6

Diyala

(Away)
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)