Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Mosul vs Karbala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Alsanati A.
Assist: Al Dali A.
68' Event
Amin S.
88' Event
Al Dali A.
Assist: Amin S.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Mosul and Karbala finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Mosul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Al Mosul
15%
Draws
36%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Mosul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Mosul carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Al Mosul taking it.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 68%
Karbala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Mosul Karbala
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 3
Draws 13 6
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.34 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Karbala
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Mosul Compare

Top Goalscorer Alsanati A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amin S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Mosul 59 / 100
Karbala 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Mosul Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Mosul Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karbala has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Attacking prowess: Al Mosul scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Karbala's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Mosul VS Karbala
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Mosul

(Home)
13 Sept
Zakho
2 : 1
Al Mosul
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
03 Sept
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Zawraa
30 Aug
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Mosul
26 Aug
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Karbala
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Karbala

(Away)
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
07 Sept
Karbala
2 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
26 Aug
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
2 Al-Karma 7 5 2 0 13:5 17
3 Newroz 7 4 2 1 13:4 14
4 Erbil 7 4 2 1 9:3 14
5 Al Naft 7 3 3 1 8:5 12
6 Al Shorta 7 3 3 1 7:4 12
7 Al Golan 7 2 3 2 6:7 9
8 Zakho 7 2 3 2 7:10 9
9 Duhok 7 1 5 1 10:10 8
10 Diyala 7 2 2 3 12:13 8
11 Al Mosul 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
12 Al Minaa 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 7 1 4 2 10:11 7
14 Ghaz Al Shamal 7 1 4 2 4:5 7
15 Al Kahraba 7 1 4 2 6:8 7
16 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
17 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
18 Al Talaba 7 1 3 3 7:12 6
19 Karbala 7 1 2 4 6:12 5
20 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)