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Al Mosul vs Karbala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Alsanati A.
Assist: Al Dali A.
68' Event
Amin S.
88' Event
Al Dali A.
Assist: Amin S.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Mosul and Karbala finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Mosul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Al Mosul
30%
Draws
23%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Mosul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Mosul carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Al Mosul taking it.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 68%
Karbala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Mosul Karbala
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 3
Draws 12 7
Losses 10 19
Goals Scored 1.33 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Karbala
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Mosul Compare

Top Goalscorer Alsanati A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amin S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Mosul 50 / 100
Karbala 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Mosul Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Mosul Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karbala has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Attacking prowess: Al Mosul scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Karbala's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Mosul VS Karbala
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Mosul

(Home)
05 Nov
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Duhok
29 Oct
Al Mosul
2 : 4
Al Golan
23 Oct
Al Karkh
1 : 1
Al Mosul
18 Oct
Erbil
0 : 1
Al Mosul
07 Oct
Al Mosul
0 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Page 1 of 6

Karbala

(Away)
06 Nov
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
30 Oct
Karbala
2 : 2
Al Talaba
23 Oct
Duhok
5 : 2
Karbala
16 Oct
Karbala
1 : 2
Al Gharraf
10 Oct
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)