Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Naft vs Karbala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Al Baqer M.
67' Event
Khalaf H.
(Penalty)
83' Event
Gbadebo S.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Naft and Karbala finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Naft.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Al Naft
20%
Draws
22%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Naft carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Al Naft are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al Naft here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 68%
Karbala Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Naft Karbala
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 3
Draws 12 6
Losses 7 19
Goals Scored 0.93 0.82
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Karbala
2:1
Jun 27, 2025 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Naft
2:4
Feb 3, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Karbala
1:0
May 31, 2024 Stars League
Al Naft vs Karbala
1:1
Dec 5, 2023 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Naft
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Naft Compare

Top Goalscorer Opare C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Naft 95 / 100
Karbala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Naft Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karbala has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Al Naft has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Karbala lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Naft VS Karbala
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Naft

(Home)
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
26 Aug
Al Naft
1 : 1
Duhok
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Karbala

(Away)
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
07 Sept
Karbala
2 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
26 Aug
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Karbala
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 7 5 2 0 13:5 17
2 Al Zawraa 7 4 3 0 13:3 15
3 Newroz 7 4 2 1 13:4 14
4 Erbil 7 4 2 1 9:3 14
5 Al Naft 7 3 3 1 8:5 12
6 Al Shorta 7 3 3 1 7:4 12
7 Al Golan 7 2 3 2 6:7 9
8 Zakho 7 2 3 2 7:10 9
9 Duhok 7 1 5 1 10:10 8
10 Diyala 7 2 2 3 12:13 8
11 Al Mosul 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
12 Al Minaa 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 7 1 4 2 10:11 7
14 Ghaz Al Shamal 7 1 4 2 4:5 7
15 Al Kahraba 7 1 4 2 6:8 7
16 Naft Missan 7 1 4 2 4:8 7
17 Al Talaba 7 1 3 3 7:12 6
18 Karbala 7 1 2 4 6:12 5
19 Al Gharraf 7 1 2 4 4:10 5
20 Al Karkh 7 1 1 5 7:12 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)