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Al Naft vs Karbala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Al Baqer M.
67' Event
Khalaf H.
(Penalty)
83' Event
Gbadebo S.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Al Naft and Karbala finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Naft.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Al Naft
30%
Draws
12%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Naft carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Al Naft are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al Naft here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 68%
Karbala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Naft Karbala
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 3
Draws 12 7
Losses 6 19
Goals Scored 0.97 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Karbala
2:1
Jun 27, 2025 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Naft
2:4
Feb 3, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Karbala
1:0
May 31, 2024 Stars League
Al Naft vs Karbala
1:1
Dec 5, 2023 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Naft
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Naft Compare

Top Goalscorer Opare C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Naft 95 / 100
Karbala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Naft Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karbala has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Al Naft found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Al Naft went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Naft VS Karbala
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Naft

(Home)
08 Nov
Al Shorta
2 : 1
Al Naft
29 Oct
Al Naft
1 : 0
Al Kahraba
22 Oct
Al Gharraf
0 : 0
Al Naft
17 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Zakho
09 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Diyala
Page 1 of 6

Karbala

(Away)
06 Nov
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
30 Oct
Karbala
2 : 2
Al Talaba
23 Oct
Duhok
5 : 2
Karbala
16 Oct
Karbala
1 : 2
Al Gharraf
10 Oct
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)