Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Najaf vs Al Mosul

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Ngah C.
32' Event
Raheem A.
67' Event
Jasi M.

AI Match Summary

Al Mosul in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Mosul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Al Najaf
28%
Draws
50%
Al Mosul
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Al Mosul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Al Mosul have won more games recently than Al Najaf.
  • Al Mosul are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Al Mosul have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Al Najaf Clean Sheet 12%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Najaf Al Mosul
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 4 8
Draws 5 13
Losses 20 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Al Mosul
1:2
Sep 26, 2025 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Al Najaf
2:1
Feb 28, 2003 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Al Najaf
2:1
Oct 11, 2002 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Al Mosul
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Najaf Compare

Top Goalscorer Jasi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Al Mosul Compare

Top Goalscorer Ngah C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Raheem A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Najaf 22 / 100
Al Mosul 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Najaf Al Mosul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Mosul's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Al Najaf scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Al Najaf stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Najaf VS Al Mosul
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Najaf

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1
Al Najaf
20 May
Al Najaf
2 : 5
Al Karkh
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1
Al Najaf
Page 1 of 6

Al Mosul

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al-Qassim
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1
Al Mosul
20 May
Al Minaa
1 : 0
Al Mosul
15 May
Al Mosul
3 : 3
Duhok
11 May
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Talaba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)