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Al Nassr vs Al Diriyah - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Nassr host Al Diriyah in the Saudi Professional League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Al Nassr have averaged 2.48 scored and 1.1 conceded recently, against Al Diriyah's 2.13 scored and 1.07 conceded. Head-to-head, Al Nassr have won 1 to Al Diriyah's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Aug 18, 2026, ending 1:4. xG projections (1.88 - 1.19) back Al Nassr to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Al Nassr
30%
Draws
37%
Al Diriyah
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Diriyah

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Nassr come out ahead of Al Diriyah on wins alone.
  • Model gives Al Diriyah a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Saudi Professional League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 20%
Al Diriyah Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Nassr Al Diriyah
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 20 18
Draws 2 6
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 2.48 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 18, 2026 King Cup
Al Diriyah vs Al Nassr
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Nassr 28 / 100
Al Diriyah 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Nassr Al Diriyah

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Diriyah Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Nassr scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Al Diriyah's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Al Nassr went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Nassr VS Al Diriyah
2.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Nassr

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0
Al Nassr
12 Sept
Al Khaleej
1 : 1
Al Nassr
09 Sept
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Abha
05 Sept
Al Ittihad
2 : 1
Al Nassr
28 Aug
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Al Taawon
Page 1 of 6

Al Diriyah

(Away)
13 Sept
Al Diriyah
0 : 0
Abha
09 Sept
Al Fateh
1 : 2
Al Diriyah
03 Sept
Al Diriyah
0 : 2
Al Qadsiah
29 Aug
Al Ettifaq FC
0 : 3
Al Diriyah
26 Aug
Al Diriyah
1 : 1
Al Kholood
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Hilal 7 6 0 1 23:5 18
2 Al Ittihad 7 5 2 0 12:6 17
3 Al Nassr 7 5 1 1 16:7 16
4 Al Qadsiah 7 5 1 1 16:8 16
5 Neom SC 7 5 0 2 13:6 15
6 Al Ahli SC 7 4 0 3 16:10 12
7 Al Kholood 7 3 3 1 12:10 12
8 Al Diriyah 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
9 Al Ettifaq FC 7 3 2 2 11:11 11
10 Al Hazem Rass 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
11 Al Riyadh 7 2 2 3 8:16 8
12 Al Fayha 7 1 3 3 7:11 6
13 Al Khaleej 7 0 5 2 3:10 5
14 Al Shabab 7 0 4 3 6:11 4
15 Al Fateh 7 0 3 4 4:11 3
16 Al-Faisaly 7 0 3 4 5:13 3
17 Al Taawon 7 0 3 4 3:12 3
18 Abha 7 0 2 5 5:13 2
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 2027/2028 (Main)