Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Nassr vs Al Taawon

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Saudi Professional League King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Al Hurayji B.
20'
Al Najdi S.
45' Event
Costa S.
Assist: Mane S.

AI Match Summary

The Saudi Professional League game between Al Nassr and Al Taawon finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Nassr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Al Nassr
30%
Draws
16%
Al Taawon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Nassr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Nassr come out ahead of Al Taawon on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Al Nassr's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 20%
Al Taawon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Nassr Al Taawon
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 20 6
Draws 2 12
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 2.34 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Taawon
2:1
Jan 26, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Taawon
1:0
Aug 29, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Taawon vs Al Nassr
0:5
May 16, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Taawon
1:1
Jan 17, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Taawon vs Al Nassr
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ronaldo C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Al Taawon Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Hurayji B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Nassr 58 / 100
Al Taawon 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Nassr Al Taawon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Nassr Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Nassr's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Al Taawon conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Al Nassr has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al Nassr VS Al Taawon
2.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Nassr

(Home)
15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0
Al Nassr
12 Sept
Al Khaleej
1 : 1
Al Nassr
09 Sept
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Abha
05 Sept
Al Ittihad
2 : 1
Al Nassr
28 Aug
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Al Taawon
Page 1 of 6

Al Taawon

(Away)
16 Sept
Al Nahda
1 : 1
Al Taawon
12 Sept
Al Taawon
0 : 6
Al Hilal
08 Sept
Al Hazem Rass
1 : 0
Al Taawon
05 Sept
Al Taawon
0 : 0
Al Fateh
28 Aug
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Al Taawon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Hilal 7 6 0 1 23:5 18
2 Al Ittihad 7 5 2 0 12:6 17
3 Al Nassr 7 5 1 1 16:7 16
4 Al Qadsiah 7 5 1 1 16:8 16
5 Neom SC 7 5 0 2 13:6 15
6 Al Ahli SC 7 4 0 3 16:10 12
7 Al Kholood 7 3 3 1 12:10 12
8 Al Diriyah 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
9 Al Ettifaq FC 7 3 2 2 11:11 11
10 Al Hazem Rass 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
11 Al Riyadh 7 2 2 3 8:16 8
12 Al Fayha 7 1 3 3 7:11 6
13 Al Khaleej 7 0 5 2 3:10 5
14 Al Shabab 7 0 4 3 6:11 4
15 Al Fateh 7 0 3 4 4:11 3
16 Al Faisaly 7 0 3 4 5:13 3
17 Al Taawon 7 0 3 4 3:12 3
18 Abha 7 0 2 5 5:13 2
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 2027/2028 (Main)